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Market Impact: 0.35

Hog Rally Continues on Monday

CMENDAQ
Commodities & Raw MaterialsCommodity FuturesFutures & Options
Hog Rally Continues on Monday

Lean hog futures surged on Monday, with gains ranging from $1.97 to $2.55, driven by a higher national average base hog price, which increased by $1.17 to $106.12. The CME Lean Hog Index also rose, up $1.06 to $102.81, while the USDA's pork cutout value increased by $1.42 to $119.48, despite declines in rib and loin primals. Monday's federally inspected hog slaughter was estimated at 478,000 head, slightly down from the previous week but up significantly compared to the same week last year.

Analysis

Lean hog futures demonstrated significant strength on Monday, with contracts gapping higher at the open and posting gains ranging from $1.97 to $2.55 across various delivery months; for instance, August 2025 Hogs closed at $112.675, up $2.550. This bullish momentum in the futures market was supported by positive movements in key physical market indicators. USDA’s national average base hog negotiated price increased by $1.17 to $106.12, and the CME Lean Hog Index rose by $1.06 to $102.81 as of June 12. Furthermore, the USDA’s FOB plant pork cutout value climbed $1.42 to $119.48, indicating robust demand at the wholesale level, despite rib and loin primals showing declines. While Monday's federally inspected hog slaughter of 478,000 head was marginally lower than the previous week by 2,000 head, it represented a substantial increase of 18,328 head compared to the same week last year, suggesting a larger available supply that the market is currently absorbing effectively.

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Market Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

strongly positive

Sentiment Score

0.75

Ticker Sentiment

CME0.10
NDAQ0.00

Key Decisions for Investors

  • Investors with exposure to agricultural commodities should note the current strong upward trend in lean hog prices, supported by both futures market activity and positive cash market indicators.
  • Closely monitor ongoing hog slaughter rates and pork cutout values; while the year-over-year increase in slaughter suggests ample supply, sustained high cutout values are crucial for continued price support.
  • Consider tactical long positions in lean hog futures in the near term, but remain vigilant for any shifts in demand indicators or a more pronounced supply response to the higher prices.