Stocks Jefferies’ analysts like going into earnings against the Wall Street consensus

Jefferies analysts are forecasting significant upside for several potentially overlooked stocks this Q2 earnings season, which will see 30% of the S&P 500 report. Based on proprietary analysis, the firm highlights Spotify, anticipating a subscriber beat and favorable top-line trends, and Boeing, projecting increased 737 production to boost free cash flow. Jefferies also identifies Clorox as undervalued with expectations for a broad-based beat, suggesting these names could achieve outsized share moves.

Analysis

Ahead of a peak Q2 earnings week, where 151 S&P 500 companies are set to report, Jefferies has identified several stocks with the potential for outsized share price moves based on proprietary data analysis and channel checks. For Spotify (SPOT), despite a 54% year-to-date gain, the firm projects a 25% upside to an $845 price target, anticipating favorable top-line trends and a subscriber beat on its +5 million guidance for Q2 2025, which is expected to offset margin pressures from podcast investments. Similarly, for Boeing (BA), which has already risen 32% in 2025, Jefferies sees a further 13% upside, driven by an increased 737 delivery estimate of 413 units for the year and noting that each additional MAX aircraft contributes an estimated $10 million in free cash flow. In contrast, Jefferies highlights Clorox (CLX) as a value opportunity, with shares down 19% year-to-date and trading at 19x forward earnings, well below its 10-year average of 24x. The firm expects a Q4 earnings beat for Clorox, catalyzed by increased retailer shipments ahead of a July ERP system transition. The note also flags LPL Financial and Fair Isaac as other favored names.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor the upcoming earnings reports for Spotify, Boeing, and Clorox as the primary catalysts, given Jefferies' expectation for event-driven, outsized share movements.
• Consider the distinct profiles of the highlighted stocks: Spotify and Boeing represent momentum and operational execution plays, while Clorox offers a potential value-based re-rating opportunity from a depressed valuation.
• To validate these theses, focus on key metrics in the upcoming reports: Spotify's net subscriber additions versus guidance, Boeing's updated 737 production rate and free cash flow generation, and the extent of Clorox's top-line beat driven by pre-ERP transition channel fill.
• Given the stock-specific nature of these calls, it may be prudent to assess these opportunities on an individual basis rather than as a basket, as the underlying drivers for each company are unique.