Ferrari shares plunged over 16% after the luxury carmaker updated its 2030 financial guidance and significantly reduced its electrification ambitions, now targeting only 20% fully electric vehicles in its 2030 model lineup, down from a prior 40% EV sales goal. While the company projects 2030 net revenue around €9 billion and EBITDA of at least €3.6 billion, analysts like Citi expressed disappointment, noting the guidance implies limited operating leverage and falls below expectations, impacting near-term consensus and multiples. Conversely, JPMorgan remained bullish, citing strong demand and management's execution ability despite the revised EV strategy.
Shares of Ferrari plunged more than 16% on Thursday after the luxury carmaker updated its full-year and 2030 guidance and scaled back its electrification ambitions. Analysts were disappointed by the new guidance, saying it fell short of expectations. The Maranello, Italy-based sports car manufacturer said at its Capital Markets Day (CMD) event that it expected net revenue of at least 7.1 billion euros ($10.7 billion) this year, up from a previous forecast of more than 7 billion euros. Net revenue is expected to be around 9 billion euros in 2030, and the company is targeting earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) of at least 3.6 billion euros by 2030. Ferrari's Milan-listed stock price tumbled 16.1% on the news. The firm's U.S.-listed share price, meanwhile, was off more than 14.8% in premarket trade. Analysts at Citi said in a research note that Ferrari's guidance "falls below our 'lower growth case' estimates from our CMD preview and reflects conservatism from management, we think." They added: "Given guidance, albeit conservative, implies limited operating leverage through the coming cycle we think there is some risk to both consensus EPS and multiples near-term." In a separate update, Ferrari said it would target a 2030 sports car model line-up made up of 40% internal combustion engine (ICE) cars, 40% hybrid and 20% fully electric vehicles. Ferrari said the revised target, which is down from a prior goal of 40% EV sales by the end of the decade, is the result of a client-centric approach, the current environment and its expected evolution. The pivot comes as the Italian carmaker lifted the hood on the technology set to power its maiden electric vehicle. Ferrari unveiled the production-ready chassis and powertrain of the "elettrica" during a technology and innovation workshop, saying it would start deliveries of the model in late 2026. The completed car is expected to be launched at a global premiere next year. "With the new Ferrari elettrica, we once again affirm our will to progress by uniting the discipline of technology, the creativity of design and the craft of manufacturing," John Elkann, executive chairman of Ferrari, said in a statement. Electric ambitions Several global carmakers have scaled back their EV sales targets in recent months, citing factors such a lack of affordable models, a slower-than-anticipated rollout of charging points and intense competition from China. Sweden's Volvo Cars, for instance, abandoned its heavily promoted plan to sell only EVs by 2030, saying in September last year that it needed to be "pragmatic and flexible" amid changing market conditions. Ferrari, which has seen its current number of active clients grow to 90,000, an increase of 20% compared to 2022, also said it planned to launch an average of four new cars per year between 2026 and 2030. Analysts at JPMorgan were bullish following the announcements laid out in Ferrari's 2030 Strategic Plan. "We have a great deal of confidence in management's ability to execute on its long-term plan given ample evidence that demand currently far outstrips supply," analysts at JPMorgan said Thursday in a research note. "We also estimate the company benefits from CEO Benedetto Vigna's leadership style, which has challenged the company to capitalise on collaboration to increase the speed at which it embraces innovation. An imminent Supercar launch may also have the potential to turbocharge profits," they added. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report. Ferrari's shares (RACE) plunged over 16% after the company updated its full-year and 2030 guidance, which disappointed analysts, and significantly scaled back its electrification ambitions. The updated outlook projects 2030 net revenue around €9 billion and EBITDA of at least €3.6 billion, while 2024 net revenue is expected to be at least €7.1 billion, only marginally above previous forecasts. This conservative guidance, particularly regarding operating leverage, triggered immediate negative market reaction. Analysts at Citi specifically noted that the guidance falls "below our 'lower growth case' estimates" and implies "limited operating leverage through the coming cycle," posing a near-term risk to consensus EPS and multiples. Conversely, JPMorgan retained a bullish stance, expressing confidence in management's execution capabilities, the current strong demand that far outstrips supply, and the potential profit boost from an imminent supercar launch. The luxury carmaker revised its 2030 model lineup target for fully electric vehicles down to 20% from a prior goal of 40%, citing a client-centric approach and evolving market conditions. This strategic shift occurs as Ferrari plans to deliver its first "elettrica" model in late 2026 and launch an average of four new cars annually between 2026 and 2030, indicating a focus on product pipeline despite the changed EV strategy.
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