Bessent Says Nvidia 15% Model Could Be Used Elsewhere

US Core CPI has accelerated at its fastest pace since January, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. This data coincides with analyst Kelly's forecast that tax refunds next year will trigger further inflation. Separately, Bessent has stated opposition to suspending monthly BLS reports, underscoring the importance of consistent economic data for market analysis.

Analysis

The latest US economic data reveals a concerning re-acceleration in underlying inflation, with Core CPI picking up at its fastest pace since January. This data point challenges the prevailing disinflationary narrative and suggests that price pressures remain persistent within the economy. Compounding this concern is an analyst forecast from Kelly, which posits that tax refunds in the upcoming year will act as a significant inflationary catalyst, potentially fueled by expansionary fiscal policy. This forward-looking view implies that inflation may remain elevated for a longer duration than the market currently anticipates. The separate commentary from Bessent, who opposes suspending monthly BLS reports, underscores the heightened market sensitivity and reliance on consistent, high-frequency economic data to navigate the current uncertain macroeconomic landscape.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should re-evaluate expectations for near-term monetary policy easing, as persistent Core CPI data may compel the central bank to delay rate cuts or maintain a more hawkish stance.
• Consider increasing exposure to inflation-hedged assets or equities in sectors with strong pricing power that can better withstand sustained price pressures.
• Monitor upcoming fiscal policy announcements and data on consumer balance sheets, as the flagged impact of future tax refunds represents a key upside risk to inflation next year.