Invitation to the presentation of Latour’s year-end report 2025

Investment AB Latour will publish its 2025 year-end report on 11 February 2026 at 08:30 CET, with a webcasted telephone presentation at 10:00 CET by CEO Johan Hjertonsson and CFO Mikael Johnsson Albrektsson and an in‑depth review of Latour Industries by business area CEO Tina Hultqvist. As of 31 December 2025 the group’s investment portfolio comprised ten substantial listed holdings with a market value of SEK 88 billion, and its wholly owned industrial operations report annual turnover of SEK 28 billion; investors should monitor the webcast for detailed earnings metrics, guidance and any capital-allocation signals.

Analysis

Market structure: Latour’s Feb 11, 2026 year‑end report is an event for concentrated ownership in Swedish industrials — direct winners are long holders of Investment AB Latour and its ten large listed holdings (aggregate market value SEK 88bn) if management signals capital returns or operational improvement; losers are short‑term arbitrageurs positioned for downside surprise. The primary competitive dynamic is a potential rerating: clearer disclosure on Latour Industries (SEK 28bn turnover) or portfolio allocation shifts can re‑price conglomerate discount by 5–15% within weeks if management commits to buybacks/dividends.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a large impairment on a major holding, surprise dividend cut, or SEK depreciation >5% vs EUR/SEK that reduces reported SEK asset values — low probability but >€500m balance‑sheet impact. Immediate (days): volatility around the webcast; short term (weeks–months): institutional rebalancing flows; long term (quarters–years): real value driven by industrial cashflow conversion and portfolio concentration. Hidden dependencies: Latour’s NAV sensitivity to a single holding (top 1–2 names) and pension/interest rate exposure could transmit to credit spreads.

Trade implications: Event‑driven directional: establish a modest long ahead of the release sized 2–3% NAV exposure in LAT B (STO:LAT B) with a 30‑day protective put ~5–7% OTM or a 1.5/6% call spread to limit cost; if implied volatility (IV) for 30d options <25%, buy ATM straddle for tactical upside. Relative value: pair trade long LAT B vs short Sweden financials (ETF EWD short 0.5–1% NAV) for 1–3 month horizon to isolate industrial rerating. Cross‑asset: buy 2–4y SEK IG corporate bonds selectively if management signals improved cash returns to capture 40–80bp spread compression.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underweight the option value in Latour Industries’ operational review — if management announces a concrete consolidation/divestment plan, upside can be asymmetric (15–25% rerate). Conversely, the market often overreacts to headline NAV beats; avoid full conviction until the Q4 release and use calibrated sizing and stop losses (10% for equity legs, 30–50% max premium loss for options). Historical parallels: Swedish investment companies rerated after explicit capital allocation moves (example: past 8–12 week +12–20% moves), but negative accounting surprises produced similar magnitude declines; plan for both outcomes.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Investment AB Latour B (STO:LAT B) before the Feb 11 report, paired with a 30‑day protective put ~5–7% OTM to cap downside; target holding period 2–8 weeks and take profits on a +10–15% move.
• If 30‑day implied volatility <25%, buy a 30‑day ATM straddle sized to 0.5–1% NAV to capture event volatility; if IV >30%, instead buy a cheap 1.5% ITM call / 6% OTM call spread to limit premium outlay.
• Implement a relative value pair: long LAT B (1–2% NAV) / short iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD) 0.5–1% NAV for 1–3 months to isolate industrial/conglomerate rerating risk; tighten if SEK moves >3% intraday.
• Allocate 1–2% NAV to 2–4 year SEK IG corporate bonds or a short‑duration Swedish credit ETF if Latour signals higher cash returns; target capture of 40–80bp spread compression within 3–6 months.