Wheat Holding Slight Monday Morning Strength

Wheat futures are showing slight gains to start the week, following mixed performance on Friday, driven by significant international tenders including Taiwan's purchase of 80,550 MT and Saudi Arabia's estimated 455,000 MT acquisition. This strong demand is balanced against an improved Argentine crop outlook, now 93% good/excellent, while potential winter wheat planting delays in Kansas due to expected rain add a localized supply consideration.

Analysis

Wheat is trading with slight gains so far to start the week. The wheat complex posted mixed trade on Friday, with the hard red contracts weaker. CBT soft red wheat futures closed the session fractionally mixed, as December was 4 ½ cents lower last week. KC HRW futures fell back 1 to 2 cents on Friday, with December slipping back 8 ½ cents since last Friday. Preliminary open interest was up 4,418 contracts on Friday. MPLS spring wheat futures were fractionally lower at the close, with December 8 cents in the red on the week. Winter wheat planting may be delayed in portions of north-central KS in the next week, with totals of 1 to 2 inches expected. Taiwan flour mill importers purchased a total of 80,550 MT of wheat from the US in a tender overnight. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates the Argentina wheat crop at 93% good/excellent, a 4 point improvement from last week, with their production estimate at 22 MMT. Saudi Arabia purchased an estimated 455,000 MT of wheat in their tender on Monday. Dec 25 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.15 1/4, up 1/2 cent, currently up 2 cents Mar 26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32 1/2, unch, currently up 2 cents Dec 25 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.97, down 2 cents, currently up 2 1/2 cents Mar 26 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.18 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents, currently up 2 cents Dec 25 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.60 3/4, down 3/4 cent, currently up 1 1/2 cents Mar 26 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.80 1/2, down 3/4 cent, currently up 1/2 cent On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. Wheat futures are beginning the week with marginal gains following a mixed session on Friday, where hard red contracts experienced weakness. The market is currently processing conflicting fundamental signals: robust international demand is being weighed against an improving supply outlook from a key southern hemisphere exporter. On the demand side, significant purchases include an 80,550 MT tender from Taiwan for US wheat and an estimated 455,000 MT tender from Saudi Arabia. This strong offtake is contrasted by supply-side news from Argentina, where the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has upgraded the wheat crop to 93% good/excellent, a 4-point weekly improvement, supporting a 22 MMT production forecast. In the US, a localized, potentially bullish factor is the forecast for 1 to 2 inches of rain in north-central Kansas, which could delay winter wheat planting. The increase in preliminary open interest for KC HRW futures by 4,418 contracts on Friday suggests new capital is entering the market, potentially signaling conviction despite recent price declines.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the development of Argentina's wheat crop, as the 93% good/excellent rating and 22 MMT production estimate could cap significant price rallies despite strong spot demand from recent international tenders.
• The 4,418 contract increase in KC HRW open interest signifies new market positioning, warranting close observation for signs of a potential trend shift or increased volatility.
• Given the balanced but conflicting market signals, a range-bound trading strategy may be prudent until a clearer catalyst emerges, such as further major international purchases or significant revisions to global supply forecasts.