iPhone Air Production Forecast Lowered By 1 Million Units Due To Poor Sales, Despite Apple’s Slim Flagship Selling Out In China

Mizuho Securities has adjusted Apple's iPhone production forecasts, reducing the iPhone Air's outlook by 1 million units due to weak sales outside China, despite its strong performance in the Chinese market. Conversely, robust demand for the base iPhone 17, Pro, and Pro Max models led to significant increases in their respective production targets, resulting in a net 6 million unit increase for the overall iPhone 17 series production, from 88 million to 94 million units. This series-specific uplift occurs even as Apple's broader projected annual iPhone shipments for 2026 have been cut by 7% to 229 million units.

Analysis

Mizuho Securities has adjusted Apple's iPhone production forecasts, reflecting a nuanced demand profile for the iPhone 17 series. The ultra-slim iPhone Air's 2025 production forecast was lowered by 1 million units due to weaker sales outside China, despite its strong performance in the critical Chinese market. Conversely, robust demand for the base iPhone 17, Pro, and Pro Max models led to significant production target increases of 2 million, 1 million, and 4 million units, respectively. This rebalancing results in a net increase of 6 million units for the overall iPhone 17 series production, raising it from 88 million to 94 million units for the year.

Despite the positive adjustment for the current iPhone 17 series, Mizuho Securities simultaneously cut Apple's broader projected annual iPhone shipments for 2026 by 7%. This reduction, from 246 million to 229 million units, indicates a more cautious long-term outlook for overall iPhone demand. The mixed sentiment score of -0.1 for AAPL, coupled with a moderate market impact score of 0.55, suggests that while current product performance is strong in parts, broader market conditions or competitive pressures may temper future growth expectations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor Apple's product mix and regional sales performance, particularly the sustained demand for Pro models and the iPhone Air's trajectory outside China.
• Evaluate whether the 7% reduction in Apple's 2026 annual iPhone shipment forecast signals a broader deceleration in smartphone market growth or increased competitive pressures.
• Consider potential impacts on Apple's supply chain partners, as production shifts favor certain iPhone 17 models over the iPhone Air.