Moderna 2026 Covid and RSV growth not enough to boost stock, Jefferies says

Jefferies initiated coverage of Moderna with a Hold and $30 price target, noting shares are down about 28% YTD and that visibility on reaching management’s 2028 cash‑breakeven target is limited—Jefferies instead models breakeven in 2030 with current annualized cash burn north of $3 billion. The firm expects Covid vaccine revenues to decline to about $1 billion by 2030 (from an estimated $1.8 billion in 2025) while RSV, flu and Covid/flu combo vaccines could add $2–3 billion by 2030, but material contributions from oncology and rare‑disease programs are unlikely before 2027–28. Jefferies sees Covid and RSV sales rising in 2026, particularly outside the U.S., but says these are insufficient as near‑term catalysts and that upside depends on sustainable revenue growth and faster expense reductions amid risks from seasonality, regulatory policy and pipeline execution.

Analysis

Jefferies initiated coverage of Moderna with a Hold rating and a $30 price target, noting shares are down nearly 28% year‑to‑date and trading just under $30. The firm emphasizes limited near‑term upside given a lack of visible catalysts and the distance between its model and management guidance.

Jefferies projects annualized cash burn currently exceeds $3 billion and models corporate cash breakeven in 2030 versus management’s 2028 target, making expense reduction a critical variable for valuation. Revenue forecasts show Covid vaccine sales falling to a $1 billion annual floor by 2030 (from an estimated $1.8 billion in 2025), while RSV, flu and Covid/flu combo vaccines could contribute an incremental $2–3 billion by 2030.

The analysts flag that meaningful contributions from oncology and rare‑disease programs are unlikely before 2027–28, so 2026 will remain primarily a Covid/RSV story with growth concentrated outside the U.S. Jefferies specifically calls out risks from Covid/RSV seasonality, regulatory policy shifts and pipeline execution, and says upside requires both sustained revenue growth and faster-than-expected cost savings.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Maintain a neutral/hold stance on MRNA until the company provides clearer visibility to management’s 2028 breakeven target or delivers material, verifiable expense reductions, given Jefferies’ 2030 breakeven projection and >$3bn annualized cash burn
• Monitor quarterly indicators closely — cash burn trajectory, 2026 Covid/RSV revenue trends (especially ex‑US), announced cost‑save programs, and 2027–28 clinical/regulatory milestones — and treat positive, sustained progress on these metrics as the primary entry trigger
• If retaining exposure, keep position sizing limited and use downside protection (puts or collars) to mitigate risks from seasonality and potential pipeline or regulatory setbacks