What are today's mortgage interest rates: March 25, 2026?

The average purchase mortgage rate was 6.37% for a 30-year and 5.87% for a 15-year as of March 25, 2026 (Zillow); average refinance rates were higher at 6.95% for a 30-year and 6.04% for a 15-year. Rates have ticked up noticeably since February but remain below levels seen around March 2025; borrowers may be able to lower costs by up to ~100 bps by shopping lenders, though closing costs should be included when evaluating refinance savings.

Analysis

Mortgage-rate drift higher has bifurcated real-economy impacts: origination pipelines compress while servicing and hold-to-maturity businesses see slower prepayments and lengthened cash flows. That dynamic raises the optionality value of servicing-heavy balance sheets (they earn coupons longer) but amplifies duration exposure for any levered holder of agency passthroughs; a modest move in long rates or a Fed pivot would rapidly flip that into mark-to-market pain.

On housing demand, the near-term buyer pool is more price- and rate-sensitive, so expect rising incentives from builders (seller-paid points, rate buydowns) and longer listing times over the spring season. That increases margin pressure on publicly traded builders and delays purchases for durable-goods suppliers (appliances, flooring) — an inventory and cashflow transmission that will show up in guidance over the next 1–2 quarters.

Technically, MBS convexity and municipal/agency spread dynamics are the lever to watch: as Treasury volatility rises, dealers widen risk premia on commitment desks, making lock volumes uneven and increasing the value of nimble warehousing or short-term funding. Catalysts to watch that could reverse the current stance are incoming inflation prints, payrolls, and a visibly weaker housing starts report — any of which could reprice expectations and induce either a prepayment wave or another mortgage spread blowout within 1–3 months.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long AGNC (AGNC) sized 1–2% AUM with a 3–6 month horizon to capture elevated carry from slower prepayments; hedge tail rate risk with a 10% notional protection via 6-month ATM puts on AGNC (target R/R ~2:1, expect 15–25% upside vs 8–12% downside if rates spike).
• Short public homebuilders pair: short DHI and go long LBM/soft-commodities exposure (e.g., short DHI, long LOW) over 3–6 months — thesis: margin compression from incentives and delayed buyer activity. Set stop-loss at 10% adverse move and take-profit at 20–30% on the short leg.
• MBS basis trade: buy agency MBS ETF (MBB) and short-duration via 10y Treasury futures to harvest spread (target carry capture > swap funding cost) with tight FX-sized sizing and monthly mark checks; runway 1–4 months, downside is prepayment spike if rates fall quickly.
• Event hedge / tactical short for originators: buy 9–12 month put spread on RKT (Rocket Companies) to express weaker origination/refi volumes if rates fall back into a refi-incentive band—cost-limited downside protection with asymmetric payoff if consumer credit loosens and rates compress.