VEON Q3 EBITDA Rises; Direct Digital Revenue Up 63.1%

VEON reported robust third-quarter performance, with EBITDA increasing 19.7% to $524 million and revenue growing 7.5% to $1.115 billion, primarily driven by resilient telecom trends and a 63.1% surge in direct digital revenues. The company revised its 2025 outlook, now anticipating local currency EBITDA growth of 16-18% and revenue growth of 13-15%, while projecting total revenue growth of 7-8% and EBITDA growth of 10-11% at current FX rates. Concurrently, VEON's Board authorized a share buyback program of up to $100 million for its ADSs and/or outstanding bonds.

Analysis

VEON reported a robust third quarter, with EBITDA increasing 19.7% year-over-year to $524 million and revenue growing 7.5% to $1.115 billion. This strong performance was primarily driven by resilient telecom and infrastructure trends, complemented by a significant 63.1% surge in direct digital revenues. The acceleration in digital revenue highlights a successful diversification strategy.

The company revised its 2025 EBITDA outlook upwards, now expecting local currency growth of 16-18%, while maintaining local currency revenue growth at 13-15%. At current FX rates, VEON projects total revenue growth of 7-8% and EBITDA growth of 10-11% for 2025, indicating confidence in sustained operational momentum despite potential currency headwinds. This revised guidance signals management's optimistic view on future profitability.

Further reinforcing investor confidence, VEON's Board authorized a share buyback program of up to $100 million for its ADSs and/or outstanding bonds. This capital return initiative, to be executed on the open market via a 10b5-1 plan, suggests management believes the company's securities are undervalued and aims to enhance shareholder value.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider the positive implications of VEON's robust Q3 performance, particularly the 63.1% growth in direct digital revenues and the upward revised 2025 EBITDA guidance, for potential re-rating of the stock.
• The authorized $100 million share buyback program signals management's confidence in current valuation and commitment to shareholder returns, which could provide support for the stock price.
• Prudent investors should monitor the actual execution of the buyback and track any future changes in FX rates, as these could impact the reported 2025 revenue and EBITDA growth projections.