Lies of P publisher plans to keep introducing "successful IP" fans can look forward to "even 5 or 10 years down the line," but of course continuing the hit Soulslike is "a given"

Neowiz, following the global success of 2023's Lies of P, is pursuing a long-term IP strategy and is internally developing more than five new PC and console titles while partnering with Western studios such as Zakazane and Wolfeye. The publisher confirmed continued investment in global and South Korean development partners, plans to continue the Lies of P franchise with a sequel in development, and emphasizes director-driven creative vision rather than genre-first development to build franchises over a five- to ten-year horizon.

Analysis

Market Structure: A sustained global hit from a South Korean publisher (Neowiz-style trajectory) benefits Korean gaming equities, middleware (Unity U), distribution platforms (Valve/Steam indirect), and gaming-focused ETFs; smaller indie-only studios and legacy IPs with weak global marketing lose share. Expect a 3–10% re-rating opportunity for mid-cap Korean publishers that produce repeatable hits over 12–24 months, driven by higher lifetime monetization and franchise valuation multiples.

Risk Assessment: Key tail risks are a poorly received sequel, platform revenue-share changes, or tighter loot-box/regulatory rules that could reduce ARPU by 10–30%; operational risks include talent inflation in Korea that could raise development costs 5–15% over 18 months. Near-term (days–weeks) volatility will center on marketing/campaign milestones; medium-term (3–9 months) hinges on release cadence and global reviews; long-term (1–3 years) depends on IP library growth and M&A appetite.

Trade Implications: Tactical exposure via country/sector ETFs (Korea EWY, gaming HERO) captures upside without single-name execution risk; buy 3–6 month call spreads on Unity (U) around engine monetization news and long-dated (12–24 month) calls on high-quality Korean publishers (KRAFTON 259960.KS, Netmarble 251270.KS) where available. Protect positions with 3–6 month puts if pre-order/review sentiment falls below an 70% positive threshold within 30 days of launch.

Contrarian Angles: Consensus underestimates secondary effects — rising Korean IP export success can prompt a modest KRW strengthening (2–5%) and attract M&A from Western publishers, compressing mid-cap takeover discounts. The market may underprice acquisition optionality; a disciplined buy-on-dip strategy when a quality Korean publisher corrects 15%+ is likely to outperform passive exposure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long in EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF) within 2 weeks to capture Korea-as-gaming-export tailwinds; trim if EWY rallies >12% in 3 months.
• Allocate 1–2% to HERO (Global X Video Games & Esports ETF) to gain diversified gaming-IP upside for the next 3–9 months; add another 0.5–1% if industry-wide sellside revisions raise forward EPS by >5%.
• Buy a 3–6 month call spread on Unity (U) sized at 0.5–1% notional (e.g., buy 6-month 10% OTM call / sell 20% OTM call) ahead of expected engine/monetization announcements to play higher middleware demand while capping premium.
• Reduce Tencent (TCEHY) exposure by 2–4% and short KWEB (size 1–2% notional) as a relative play (Korea gaming IP vs. China internet) for 6–12 months; rebalance if KWEB underperforms by >15% or KRW strengthens >4% vs CNY.
• If a mid-cap Korean publisher (e.g., KRAFTON 259960.KS or Netmarble 251270.KS) sells off >=15% on execution concerns, initiate a 1–2% long with a 12–24 month horizon to capture takeover/accretion optionality and franchise compounding.