Most people have already gotten their tax refunds. That's bad news for restaurants and retailers.

The Iran conflict entering a second month is contributing to higher gasoline prices while tax refunds appear to have peaked. Clothing retailers and quick-service/drive-through restaurants are likely to face weaker discretionary spending and margin pressure as consumers absorb rising fuel costs and reduced refund-driven cash flows.

Analysis

The Iran conflict entering a second month is contributing to higher gasoline prices while tax refunds appear to have peaked. Clothing retailers and quick-service/drive-through restaurants are likely to face weaker discretionary spending and margin pressure as consumers absorb rising fuel costs and reduced refund-driven cash flows.