VKTX Completes Enrollment in First Late-Stage Study on Obesity Drug

Viking Therapeutics said it has completed enrollment of roughly 4,650 adults in its phase III VANQUISH-1 trial of subcutaneous VK2735—randomized to weekly 7.5 mg, 12.5 mg and 17.5 mg doses versus placebo—with percent change in body weight at 78 weeks as the primary endpoint, exceeding the company’s ~4,500 target and following rapid recruitment in the phase II VENTURE oral study. The company is also enrolling VANQUISH-2 (≈1,100 patients with type 2 diabetes) with enrollment expected to finish in Q1 2026 and both VANQUISH readouts due in 2027; midstage VENTURE data showed up to 14.7% weight loss at 13 weeks. Rapid recruitment highlights strong patient and physician interest and potential commercial opportunity in a U.S. obesity market Goldman Sachs pegs around $100bn by 2030, but VK2735 will face intense competition from established and emerging programs at Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly and new entrants such as Pfizer, and meaningful upside depends on long‑term efficacy and safety; VKTX shares are down about 10% YTD versus the industry’s ~+17%.

Analysis

Viking Therapeutics announced completion of enrollment of about 4,650 adults in the phase III VANQUISH-1 study evaluating the subcutaneous formulation of VK2735, randomized to weekly 7.5 mg, 12.5 mg and 17.5 mg doses versus placebo; the primary endpoint is percent change in body weight at 78 weeks and enrollment exceeded the company’s ~4,500 target after the study was initiated in June. This operational milestone follows rapid recruitment in the phase II VENTURE-Oral study earlier this year and accompanies ongoing enrollment in VANQUISH-2, which will enroll nearly 1,100 obese or overweight adults with type 2 diabetes and is expected to complete enrollment in Q1 2026. Mid-stage VENTURE data showed up to 14.7% weight loss at 13 weeks, supporting further development, but both VANQUISH pivotal readouts are not expected until 2027 and long-term safety/efficacy remain unknown. The commercial opportunity is sizable—Goldman Sachs estimates the U.S. obesity market could reach $100 billion by 2030—but VKTX faces stiff competition from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly and new entrants such as Pfizer (following the Metsera acquisition), and VKTX shares are down ~10% year-to-date versus the industry’s ~+17% performance, highlighting market skepticism and execution risk.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should treat VANQUISH-1 and VANQUISH-2 as binary catalysts and avoid adding meaningful new long exposure until pivotal readouts in 2027 or until VANQUISH-2 enrollment completes in Q1 2026
• Given rapid enrollment but clear competitive pressure from NVO, LLY and entrants like PFE, maintain a cautious, size‑limited position or implement hedges to limit downside ahead of long‑term safety and efficacy data
• Monitor catalyst timeline, any partnering/licensing/M&A activity and VKTX relative performance (approximately −10% YTD vs industry +17%) as triggers to reassess conviction and consider opportunistic reweighting on positive phase‑III results or strategic deals