Does Nvidia Stock Still Have Enough Mojo to Buy?

Nvidia posted blockbuster Q3 results—$57 billion in revenue (+62% YoY) and $1.30 EPS (+60%)—beating estimates and delivering an unusual 22% sequential revenue jump from $46.74 billion as Blackwell GPUs sold out on cloud platforms, though the stock briefly pulled back amid AI bubble concerns and export restrictions to China. Management guided Q4 to about $65 billion (+/-2%), well above the Street, and highlighted strategic partnerships (OpenAI, Uber, xAI) and an accelerated Vera Rubin roadmap (now targeted for Q3 2026), underscoring persistent hyperscale and enterprise AI demand that mutes competitive worries. Analysts have raised price targets (average $239.49; Loop Capital $350), EPS revisions are trending higher, and while the share valuation of ~41x forward earnings is elevated it is below decade peaks—supporting the case for continued upside but leaving macro/export and sentiment risks intact.

Analysis

Nvidia reported blockbuster Q3 results with revenue of $57.0 billion, up 62% year-over-year, and EPS of $1.30, up 60%, both topping consensus by roughly 4%, and posted an unusually large 22% sequential revenue increase from $46.74 billion. The stock’s immediate post-earnings reaction—spiking ~+5% then sliding to a ~3% decline below its 50-day moving average of $184—reflects investor anxiety around AI “bubble” sentiment and export restrictions to China despite the beat.

Management raised Q4 revenue guidance to roughly $65 billion (+/-2%), well ahead of the Street at $60.57 billion, citing Blackwell GPU demand (cloud-delivered SKUs sold out), strategic partnerships (OpenAI, Uber, xAI), and an accelerated Vera Rubin roadmap now targeted for Q3 2026 as demand drivers. These operational signals and the sequential jump mute near-term competitive concerns from peers like AMD and support continued top-line momentum.

Valuation sits near 41x forward earnings—below its decade high of 118x but slightly below the decade median of 45x—while the Average Zacks price target is $239.49 (implying ~28% upside) and some shops (Loop Capital) peg a street-high $350. The primary risks are geopolitical/export controls and sentiment-driven multiple compression; EPS revisions have trended higher in the last seven days, so near-term catalysts will be guidance execution and continued sell-through of Blackwell inventory.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider selectively adding or initiating positions on disciplined pullbacks (notably below the $184 50-day level) to capitalize on secular AI demand reflected in outsized Q3 growth
• Limit sizing or use protective hedges given a 41x forward multiple and sentiment/export-control risks, rather than full conviction leverage
• Monitor Q4 guidance execution, Vera Rubin milestone timing (now Q3 2026), and export-restriction developments as primary catalysts that should materially alter the risk/reward
• Reassess targets if consensus EPS revisions continue upward and price approaches the average analyst target of $239.49 or Loop Capital's $350, taking profits incrementally if valuation-driven gains emerge