Ex-Dividend Reminder: J.M. Smucker, Starbucks and Carnival

On Feb. 13, 2026 J.M. Smucker (SJM), Starbucks (SBUX) and Carnival plc (CUK) will trade ex-dividend: SJM pays $1.10 quarterly on 3/2/26 (≈1.01% of a $109.38 stock price; implied annualized yield 4.02%), SBUX pays $0.62 on 2/27/26 (implied annualized yield 2.54%), and CUK pays a $0.15 special on 2/27/26 (implied annualized yield 0.45%). The piece notes expected all-else-equal opening price drops of ~1.01% for SJM, 0.64% for SBUX and 0.45% for CUK, and reports same-session moves of SJM +1.8%, SBUX -1.5% and CUK +1.4%; Starbucks is also highlighted as a 15+ year dividend grower and a potential future Dividend Aristocrat.

Analysis

Market structure: The ex‑dividend actions are modest mechanically (SJM ~1.0%, SBUX ~0.6%, CUK ~0.45% moves) but signal where corporate cash returns sit in the cycle: SJM (4.0% yield) reaffirms an income story in staples, SBUX is a quality dividend-growth name (15+ years) positioning for durable yield/valuation support, and CUK’s tiny special dividend is a signal of surplus cash but not a material income play. Expect marginal rotation from ultra‑growth into yield/quality names; travel names like CUK remain hostage to discretionary spend and forward booking trends, so market share shifts will favour branded, cash‑generative consumer staples over cyclical leisure if macro softens.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a demand shock (recession) that cuts SBUX C‑store/coffee frequency and decimates CUK bookings, and commodity spikes (coffee) or input cost shocks that compress SJM/SBUX margins; regulatory/labeling issues for packaged foods are low‑probability but high‑impact. Near term (days) the price mechanically drops by the dividend amount; in 1–3 months watch guidance season and consumer confidence; over 6–24 months monitor free cash flow and net leverage trends — set stop‑loss triggers if free cash flow per share drops >15% YoY or net leverage target drifts >0.5x.

Trade implications: For income bias, prioritize SJM for yield capture via covered calls or buy-and-hold (target 2–3% portfolio weight), and use SBUX as a quality growth-and-yield core (1–2% weight) with cash‑secured put entry points 3–5% below spot. Treat CUK as a tactical, event‑driven trade: prefer long-dated call spreads sized to <0.5% risk if booking trends or ticket yields improve >200 bps QoQ, otherwise underweight/short into soft guidance.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates the optionality in SBUX becoming a Dividend Aristocrat — if SBUX hits 20 years of increases and same‑store sales growth reaccelerates to >5% annual, multiple expansion of 2–3 turns is plausible. Conversely, the market may be underpricing a near‑term operational miss at CUK (fuel/crew costs + soft bookings); short gamma via outright short or buying puts around earnings/guidance windows could pay off. Avoid dividend‑capture trades that ignore ex‑div mechanical drop and tax/transaction costs.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in SJM (ticker SJM) for a 4%+ yield core holding; implement 3‑month covered calls at the 1–2% out‑of‑the‑money strike to boost yield by ~2–3% annualized. Exit or reassess if SJM price falls >7% or FCF/Share declines >15% YoY.
• Initiate a 1–2% long position in SBUX (ticker SBUX) as a dividend‑growth core; sell 30–45 day cash‑secured puts 3–5% below current to collect premium and lower basis. Add an extra 0.5–1% if SBUX confirms 2 consecutive quarters of same‑store sales growth >3%.
• Avoid outright long equity exposure to CUK (Carnival plc) >0.5% until post‑earnings booking cadence confirms recovery; if bookings accelerate >200 bps QoQ, buy 3‑month call spreads (e.g., 15–25% OTM) sized to 0.25–0.5% portfolio risk. If guidance misses, consider a 0.5–1% tactical short funded by proceeds from cutting an equivalent amount of discretionary exposure.
• Rotate 2–4% from cyclical discretionary ETFs into staples (e.g., increase SJM/SBUX exposure) if consumer confidence drops >5 points month‑over‑month or if 10y Treasury rises >50 bps, which would favour higher dividend, lower‑beta names.