Political ad spending expected to hit new record, surpassing 2022 midterms by 20%

Political advertising spending for the 2025-2026 midterm season is projected to reach a record $10.8 billion, making it the most expensive midterm cycle in history, surpassing 2021-2022 by over 20%. This significant increase is driven by a highly competitive national political environment, particularly in congressional races. Connected TV (CTV) is forecast to be the fastest-growing media type, with spending expected to hit $2.5 billion, reflecting a strategic shift in campaign advertising, while broadcast television retains the largest share. The unprecedented early spending in 2025 further underscores the intensity and scale of capital deployment in this election cycle.

Analysis

The 2025-2026 midterm election cycle is poised to inject a record $10.8 billion into the advertising market, representing a substantial 20% increase over the 2021-2022 period and nearing the expenditure of a presidential cycle. This spending surge is directly attributed to a highly competitive political environment, with narrow majorities in both the House and Senate driving intense fundraising and ad deployment. A pivotal trend identified is the strategic shift in media allocation; while broadcast television is expected to retain the largest share of ad dollars at 49%, connected TV (CTV) is the clear growth leader, with spending projected to hit $2.5 billion, establishing it as a core campaign strategy. This move toward CTV is particularly noteworthy as it contrasts with expected slight declines in local cable and social media spending, underscoring a deliberate reallocation of capital towards more efficient, high-reach digital platforms. The cycle's intensity is further evidenced by unprecedented early spending, which reached approximately $900 million by late August 2025, a 37% increase over the same point in the 2023 cycle, signaling a prolonged and robust revenue stream for exposed media companies.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should prioritize exposure to companies with significant operations in Connected TV (CTV) advertising, as this segment is the fastest-growing category and is projected to capture $2.5 billion in political ad spend.
• Differentiate holdings within the traditional media sector; local broadcast television station owners in key battleground states like California, Michigan, and Georgia are positioned for a significant, albeit cyclical, revenue windfall, while legacy cable providers face secular headwinds and declining political ad share.
• Given the 37% year-over-year surge in early spending, investors should monitor media company earnings reports starting in late 2025 for early signs of revenue beats driven by this accelerated political advertising cycle.
• Consider underweighting or monitoring exposure to social media and local cable platforms, as the report forecasts a slight decline in spending for these categories despite the overall market growth.