Weekend Preview: ZOOTOPIA 2 Poised to Ascend Once More

A quiet December weekend is forecast to see a close race for No.1 between Zootopia 2 (projected $27M–$32M in week 3) and Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 ($25M–$30M in week 2); Zootopia 2 has softened domestically after a steeper-than-expected -57% drop to $43.4M (14-day domestic $227.5M) but is buoyed by a blockbuster China run ($440.2M), while Freddy’s over-indexed to $64M last weekend, has crossed the $100M overseas threshold (about $113.5M worldwide so far) and appears front-loaded with a youth-heavy audience (77% under 25). Wicked: For Good is pegged at $7M–$10M in week 4 after a -72% frame to $17.35M, will top $300M domestically imminently (18-day $298.86M), is comfortably profitable versus an estimated ~$150M cost, and should pass $500M worldwide by Sunday; collectively the tentpoles underscore strong international carry and horror-franchise momentum but also industry-wide front‑loading and steep domestic second‑week declines.

Analysis

Weekend box office forecasts show a tight race for No.1 between Disney’s Zootopia 2 (projected $27M–$32M in week 3) and Universal/Blumhouse’s Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 (projected $25M–$30M in week 2), with the panel noting a quiet December weekend and weak expectations for new releases. Zootopia 2 posted a steeper-than-expected -57% drop to $43.4M last frame but has a 14-day domestic total of $227.5M and an outsized China haul of $440.2M, keeping its global trajectory robust relative to the original. Freddy’s over-indexed to $64M opening (roughly $113.5M worldwide to date) and appears front-loaded with 77% of buyers under 25 and 36% under 17, indicating strong initial demand but limited broad demographic appeal. Wicked: For Good is experiencing sharp declines (-72% to $17.35M), sits at $298.86M domestically after 18 days versus $325.45M for the first film, should clear $300M domestically and $500M worldwide soon, and is likely profitable against an estimated ~$150M production cost, illustrating the broader theme of international carry and domestic front-loading across tentpoles.

Key Decisions for Investors

• For DIS, consider maintaining or modestly increasing exposure to capture outsized international strength (Zootopia 2 China $440.2M) and downstream merchandising/licensing upside while recognizing near-term domestic softness (-57% second-week decline),
• Use next weekend’s actual box office vs. forecast ranges ($27M–$32M for Zootopia 2, $25M–$30M for Freddy’s 2) as a short-term catalyst; trim or hedge positions if Zootopia’s domestic trajectory continues to materially underperform expectations,
• Favor short-duration trades or option-based hedges around this release window given industry-wide front-loading and steep week-to-week drops (e.g., Wicked -72%); monitor Blumhouse/Universal horror momentum as a potential franchise-growth theme that could support related equities or media sector sentiment