Live cattle futures rallied on Thursday—nearby contracts gained $2.30–$3.57 and feeder cattle climbed $4.60–$5.02 after a pickup in cash trade reported at $230 nationwide and the CME Feeder Cattle Index rose $1.44 to $345.47—pushing December live cattle to $230.375 and January feeders to $343.40. However, export demand showed weakness with just 3,863 MT of beef sold for 2025 and 2,922 MT for 2026 (combined sales of 6,785 MT, the lowest since August) even as weekly shipments hit a 15‑week high at 13,907 MT and September exports were the weakest for that month since 2015, signaling uneven external demand. Domestic wholesale signals were mixed: USDA boxed beef prices fell (Choice down $1.25 to $358.11; Select down $1.42 to $343.46, widening the Choice/Select spread to $14.65) while slaughter was estimated at 123,000 head Thursday (weekly 484,000), suggesting the near‑term rally is supported by cash flows but may be constrained by softer export fundamentals and weakening wholesale cuts.
Live cattle futures closed sharply higher on Thursday, with nearby contracts gaining $2.30–$3.57 and feeder cattle rising $4.60–$5.02 after cash trade picked up at $230 nationwide; the CME Feeder Cattle Index rose $1.44 to $345.47 and specific closes included Dec 25 live cattle at $230.375 (up $3.575) and Jan 26 feeder cattle at $343.400 (up $5.025). There were no new deliveries reported on Thursday. Export demand shows clear softness: the week of 11/13 recorded just 3,863 MT sold for 2025 and 2,922 MT for 2026 (combined 6,785 MT, the lowest since August). Weekly shipments were a 15-week high at 13,907 MT, but September beef exports totaled 180.25 million lbs on a carcass basis—the weakest September since 2015 and the weakest month since February 2016—while imports were 139,656.8 MT, slightly below a year ago and down 5% from August. USDA wholesale signals were mixed as Choice boxed beef fell $1.25 to $358.11 and Select fell $1.42 to $343.46, widening the Choice/Select spread to $14.65, and federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 123,000 head Thursday with a weekly total of 484,000 (9,000 above last week but 4,644 below year-ago). The juxtaposition of stronger cash/futures moves and weakening export sales and boxed-cut values implies the near-term upswing is momentum-driven and vulnerable to demand setbacks, creating a higher-risk environment for unhedged length.
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mildly positive
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