Biogen Gears Up to Report Q2 Earnings: Here's What to Expect

Biogen (BIIB) is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2025 results on July 31, with consensus estimates projecting $2.32 billion in sales and $3.95 per share in earnings, following a 7.4% earnings miss last quarter. Analysts anticipate a decline in sales of legacy multiple sclerosis drugs like Tecfidera and Tysabri due to generic and biosimilar competition, which is expected to be largely offset by sequential revenue growth from newer products such as Leqembi and Zurzuvae. Despite this, the Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Biogen, citing a negative Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), while the stock has underperformed, declining 14.0% year-to-date.

Analysis

Biogen's upcoming second-quarter 2025 results are expected to reflect a critical transition, with declining revenues from its legacy multiple sclerosis (MS) franchise being offset by growth from newer products. Sales from key MS drugs Tecfidera and Tysabri are projected to weaken due to sustained generic and biosimilar competition, with consensus estimates pegged at $178.0 million and $373.0 million, respectively. This pressure is set to intensify with Tysabri biosimilars expected to launch in the U.S. in Q4 2025. Conversely, the company's growth hinges on the uptake of new launches, particularly the Alzheimer's treatment Leqembi, which is expected to continue its sequential sales growth, and Zurzuvae, which is benefiting from strong patient demand. While Skyclarys sales are expanding geographically, U.S. growth may be tempered by Medicare discount dynamics. Despite a history of earnings beats, the company missed expectations by 7.4% last quarter, and the current Zacks model signals caution with a Rank #4 (Sell) and a negative Earnings ESP of -0.85%. This sentiment is mirrored in the stock's 14.0% year-to-date decline, which starkly underperforms the industry's 3.2% gain, indicating investor apprehension about the pace of this strategic pivot.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the upcoming earnings report to assess if revenue growth from new products, particularly Leqembi and Zurzuvae, is sufficient to compensate for the structural decline in the legacy MS drug portfolio.
• Given the Zacks #4 (Sell) rating, a negative Earnings ESP, and the previous quarter's earnings miss, it is prudent to be cautious of potential downside risk to the consensus earnings estimate of $3.95 per share.
• A key near-term catalyst to watch is the FDA's decision on the subcutaneous version of Leqembi, anticipated by August 31, 2025, as approval could significantly enhance the drug's market adoption and long-term revenue potential.
• Consider the ongoing stock underperformance and negative sentiment as indicators that the market requires tangible proof of a successful commercial transition before a significant re-rating of the equity is likely.