3 Overlooked Trends Shaping 2026

Analyst Louis Navellier warns that the AI- and tech-driven trends that outperformed in 2024–25 are beginning to weaken and urges investors to rotate into new themes ahead of a potential “hidden crash” in 2026. He highlights three investment opportunities should faster-than-expected Fed rate cuts materialize: Rocket Cos. (RKT) to benefit from a refinancing surge (Trump also ordered a $200bn mortgage-bond purchase), Crispr Therapeutics (CRSP) as gene-editing approvals and a new FDA pathway could accelerate sales (CRSP revenue forecast: $9.4m in 2025 to $112m in 2026, $273m in 2027 and potentially ~$1bn by 2030), and Evolv Technologies (EVLV) as a national-security AI-enabled weapons-detection play after operational and governance improvements and a shift toward subscription revenue. The note is prescriptive for portfolio rotation rather than breaking news and frames both macro risk (weakening earnings momentum at mega-cap techs) and idiosyncratic upside in select names.

Analysis

Market structure: Faster-than-expected Fed cuts and a $200B mortgage-bond purchase would reallocate demand from short-term cash into MBS and mortgage originators, benefiting large servicers/originators (RKT) and MBS-sensitive REITs while pressuring regional-bank NIMs and money-market yields. Gene-editing approvals and FDA pathway changes compress time-to-revenue for CRSP-like developers, shifting pricing power toward early-patent holders and CDMOs; security hardware/software (EVLV) benefits from recurring SaaS/subscription revenue if government procurement accelerates.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include no Fed easing (rates stay >3.5%), a rollback of mortgage bond purchases, adverse FDA safety guidance, or procurement delays for Evolv — each can erase >30%-50% of upside. Immediate moves (days) will be headline-driven; medium term (1–3 months) depends on CPI/FOMC and DHS wins; long term (12–36 months) hinges on reimbursement/manufacturing scale for gene edits and commercial adoption curves for Evolv.

Trade implications: Tactical longs: RKT (mortgage convexity), CRSP (gene-editing optionality), EVLV (security SaaS). Use directional size small (1–3% each) and options to manage timing: 3–6 month call spreads on RKT, 12–24 month LEAP calls on CRSP, 6–12 month calls or buy-writes on EVLV. Rotate out/underweight mega-cap tech (QQQ) by 3–5% and redeploy into financials/mid-cap mortgage plays; consider pair trades to hedge policy risk.

Contrarian angles: The market may be underpricing policy execution risk — Trump rhetoric ≠ guaranteed sustained purchases; RKT’s post-jump euphoria can reverse if refi volume disappoints (history: 2021 spike→2022 collapse). CRSP upside is binary and already reflects optimistic approvals; Evolv’s low valuation could understate SaaS margin expansion but remains hostage to government procurement cycles and liability risk.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a phased long position in RKT equal to 2–3% of portfolio (scale in 3 tranches over 4–8 weeks). Hedge timing risk with 3–6 month call spreads 15–30% OTM (sell nearer-term calls to fund buys). Set stop-loss at -18% and take-profit partial sells at +35% and +60; add if 10-year Treasury yield falls >50bp from today.
• Initiate a selective growth/optionary position in CRSP at 1–2% of portfolio via 18–24 month LEAP calls (10–30% ITM depending on cost) or durable call spreads to limit capital at risk. Monitor FDA final guidance and first commercial sickle-cell sales (quarterly revenue inflection to >$100M in 2026 is a positive trigger); cut to 0.5% if two consecutive regulatory setbacks occur.
• Buy EVLV exposure at 1%–1.5% of portfolio using 6–12 month call options or small equity stake; target upside >50% if DHS/airport approvals or >15% topline beat occur. Tighten risk: sell on failure to secure two major municipal/state contracts within 9 months or if gross-margin guidance slips >400bps.
• Implement a pair trade: long RKT (1.5%) / short KRE (Regional Banks ETF) (1.5%) to express rate-cut/re-fi convexity while hedging NIM compression. Rebalance if Treasury 2s/10s curve steepens by >75bp or if regional-bank net interest margins stabilize in two consecutive quarters.
• Reduce mega-cap tech (QQQ) exposure by 3–5% over next 30–60 days and redeploy into the above trades; use quarterly earnings and forward EPS revisions as triggers — exit reduction if forward EPS revision for the Nasdaq median improves by >5% sequentially.