Macquarie raises Wynn Resorts stock price target to $124 on luxury appeal

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) received multiple analyst price target increases, including Macquarie to $124 and Stifel to $130, and maintained Buy/Outperform ratings, despite reporting a Q2 2025 EPS of $1.09, missing consensus estimates of $1.20. The positive sentiment is driven by stronger-than-expected performance in Las Vegas and Boston, which achieved record EBITDAR and robust forward bookings, largely offsetting weaker Macau results. Analysts cite Wynn's high gross profit margins (68.78%), strategic share buybacks, and the anticipated 'significant inflection in FCF' from the 2027 UAE project as key drivers for its valuation as a premium luxury stock, despite expected challenging Vegas comparisons in 2025.

Analysis

Despite Wynn Resorts (WYNN) reporting a second-quarter 2025 earnings per share of $1.09, which missed analyst expectations of $1.20 by 9.17%, the company's stock has received multiple price target upgrades from firms including Macquarie (to $124) and Stifel (to $130). This bullish sentiment is driven by operational strength that counteracts the headline EPS miss. Specifically, the company's Las Vegas and Boston operations outperformed, with Las Vegas achieving a new second-quarter EBITDAR record on the back of 14.5% growth in total casino revenues, offsetting weaker results in Macau which were negatively impacted by VIP hold. This U.S. momentum is projected to continue, with strong forward bookings for Q4 and into 2026. Fundamentally, Wynn maintains a strong financial profile, evidenced by a 68.78% gross profit margin and an aggressive $158 million share repurchase in the quarter. Analysts view the anticipated challenging comparables for Las Vegas in 2025 as already priced into the stock, while the Al Marjan project in the UAE, on track for a 2027 opening, is expected to create a 'significant inflection in FCF' as capital expenditures decline, solidifying Wynn’s position as a 'premium luxury value stock' with long-term catalysts.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should look past the Q2 headline EPS miss and focus on the underlying operational strength in U.S. markets, as evidenced by record EBITDAR in Las Vegas and bullish analyst upgrades.
• It is important to monitor Wynn's Macau performance for a recovery in VIP hold, as any stabilization in that segment presents a significant upside catalyst to current consensus estimates.
• For those with a long-term horizon, the aggressive share buyback program signals management's confidence, while the UAE project represents a major free cash flow growth driver post-2027.
• Given that analysts believe challenging 2025 comparisons are already priced in, the current valuation may still offer an attractive entry point despite the stock's 33.78% run-up over the last six months.