Form 13F RoundAngle Advisors LLC For: 8 April

This is a risk disclosure noting trading financial instruments and cryptocurrencies involves high risk, including loss of some or all invested capital, and that cryptocurrency prices are extremely volatile and subject to external financial, regulatory, or political events. Fusion Media warns its site data may not be real-time or accurate, is indicative only and not appropriate for trading, and disclaims liability for any trading losses.

Analysis

Regulatory caution in crypto functions as a capital‑structure shock more than a market‑structure one: it raises funding costs for native players and increases the valuation discount on variable, flow‑dependent revenue. That creates a durable advantage for regulated, institutional fee‑capture franchises (clearinghouses, ETF issuers, traditional custodians) because their income is stickier and less correlated with headline volatility. Expect this re‑rating to play out over 3–12 months as enforcement clarity and product approvals shift where liquidity pools settle.

A key second‑order effect is fragmentation of execution venues and widening basis between spot, exchange‑traded products, and perpetual futures. When institutional counterparties move onto regulated venues, retail execution and OTC spreads can widen, boosting derivatives fees and exchange margins at the regulated end while depressing top‑line volumes for pure spot players. That amplifies funding‑rate swings and on‑chain liquidation sensitivity in episodic stress, making short‑dated implied vols and funding rates good early warning indicators over days–weeks.

Tail risks are binary and fast: major enforcement action or banking de‑risking can freeze custodial flows in days and trigger multi‑week liquidity squeezes; conversely, decisive regulatory safe‑harbors or a new wave of ETF approvals would compress risk premia quickly over 1–3 quarters. Monitor three catalysts closely — SEC enforcement headlines, stablecoin legislative language, and large institutional custody onboarding — as each can reverse positioning rapidly and change relative winners/losers.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Pair trade (3–9 months): Short COIN / Long CME (equal notional). Rationale: downgrade to flow‑sensitive retail exchange revenue vs resilient derivatives/clearing fees. Target 20–35% relative outperformance; stop if COIN/CME ratio moves 20% adverse.
• Tail‑protected BTC exposure (weeks–months): Buy spot BTC (custodial, insured counterparty) sized 1–3% NAV and buy 1–3 month 10% OTM puts to cap downside (~pay ~1–3% premium depending on vol). Rationale: capture upside if liquidity returns while limiting black‑swan losses from sudden de‑risking.
• Levered, hedged BTC proxy (12–36 months): Buy MSTR LEAP call spread (long deep‑ITM LEAP, sell higher strike LEAP) sized 0.5–1% NAV. Rationale: cheaper convex exposure to Bitcoin adoption with capped cost; target asymmetric 3:1 upside if BTC regime normalizes, cut if sustained regulatory clampdown persists.