Worldwide Foldable Smartphone Market to Grow 30% YoY in 2026, Boosted by the First Apple Foldable iPhone, according to IDC

IDC forecasts worldwide foldable smartphone shipments of 20.6 million in 2025 (up 10% YoY) and expects the category to accelerate to roughly 30% YoY growth in 2026 as Samsung’s Galaxy Z Trifold and Apple’s first foldable iPhone enter the market. Apple is predicted to take over 22% of unit share and about 34% of the foldables market value in its first year, supported by an expected average selling price near $2,400, while foldable ASPs are roughly three times those of standard phones, making the category a disproportionate value driver despite remaining niche in volume. IDC projects foldables to grow at a 17% CAGR through 2029 and to represent more than 10% of total smartphone market value by 2029, underscoring that foldables and tri‑fold innovations are becoming critical levers to revive upgrade activity as overall smartphone growth stalls.

Analysis

IDC forecasts worldwide foldable smartphone shipments of 20.6 million units in 2025, a 10% year‑over‑year increase, and anticipates the category will accelerate to roughly 30% YoY growth in 2026 as multiple launches expand consumer choice. Samsung’s Galaxy Z Trifold (mainstream tri‑fold) and Huawei’s HarmonyOS Next foldables—expected to nearly double Huawei’s shipments in 2026—are cited as near‑term volume drivers, while Apple’s first foldable iPhone is described as a year‑end catalyst expected to capture over 22% unit share and about 34% of foldables’ market value in its first year with an estimated average selling price near $2,400.

Foldables are positioned as a disproportionate value driver: IDC expects foldable ASPs to be roughly three times that of standard smartphones, a 17% CAGR through 2029 for foldables versus less than 1% for traditional smartphones, and foldables to exceed 10% of total smartphone market value by 2029. This implies vendors offering compelling foldable portfolios can materially outpace overall handset revenue growth despite limited volume share.

Key risks include longer consumer replacement cycles that constrain upgrade frequency and the category remaining niche on a unit basis, so upside depends on ASP realization, pricing elasticity, and Apple’s ability to mainstream adoption. Investors should therefore focus on shipment/ASP data, launch cadence, and early sell‑through metrics to validate IDC’s nested assumptions.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider increasing exposure to AAPL ahead of its first foldable iPhone given IDC’s projection of >22% unit share and ~34% foldable market value in year one at an estimated $2,400 ASP, while validating launch timing and pre‑order/ASP signals before adding material risk
• Evaluate selective exposure to Samsung (Galaxy Z Trifold) and to Chinese vendors like Huawei that IDC expects to nearly double foldable shipments in 2026, focusing on companies that demonstrate tri‑fold/hinge innovation and shipment momentum
• Monitor foldable ASPs, unit‑share and sell‑through data, and replacement‑cycle indicators; if ASPs or demand materially undershoot IDC’s forecasts, reduce exposure or hedge because foldables remain a high‑value but volume‑niche segment