Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Bearish Momentum Targets $60 in WTI and $64 in Brent

WTI crude futures hover near $63 per barrel after a 2% slide, with Brent also trading lower near $66.60, as both oil benchmarks exhibit bearish technicals and are pressured by geopolitical tensions, tariff disputes, and broader market jitters, alongside a smaller-than-expected 1 million barrel U.S. crude inventory draw. Natural gas is similarly under pressure near $2.81, struggling against descending trendline resistance. The collective outlook for energy markets remains cautiously bearish, with key support levels being tested across the board.

Analysis

The energy complex is exhibiting significant weakness, with WTI crude futures falling 2% to near $63 per barrel and Brent trading around $66.60, both pressured by a confluence of negative factors. The market sentiment is weighed down by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, though the immediate supply risk is considered limited. A smaller-than-expected U.S. crude inventory draw of 1 million barrels, compared to a 1.7 million forecast, has failed to provide a bullish catalyst. The technical picture for crude is explicitly bearish; both WTI and Brent have broken below their short-term ascending channels, with key moving averages (50-EMA and 100-EMA) now acting as overhead resistance. Momentum indicators confirm this shift, with the RSI for WTI at 44 and Brent at 39, alongside negative MACD crossovers, signaling that sellers are in control. Natural gas is similarly constrained, trading near $2.81 and struggling to overcome a descending trendline and resistance at its 50-EMA of $2.84. While its momentum indicators (RSI at 51, flat MACD) are more neutral, the price action is coiling under pressure, suggesting a breakout is pending with a prevailing bearish bias below key resistance levels.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the bearish technical setups and negative fundamental drivers across the energy complex, investors should consider a cautious to bearish stance, potentially reducing long exposure or exploring hedging strategies.
• For crude oil, monitor WTI support at $62.55 and Brent support at $66.17; a sustained break below these levels could confirm the next leg down towards $61.54 and $65.30 respectively.
• In natural gas, the $2.84 price level serves as a critical pivot; a continued failure to close above this resistance reinforces a bearish outlook with potential targets at $2.70, while a decisive breach would invalidate the current downward pressure.
• Pay close attention to broader market sentiment tied to central bank policy signals and geopolitical developments, as these are key catalysts driving the current fragility and could rapidly shift the market's direction.