Soybeans Close Higher on Thursday, Assisted by Meal Stregnth

Soybean futures closed higher on Thursday, supported by gains in soymeal, with contracts rising 3 to 5 cents. USDA's weekly Export Sales report showed old crop soybean sales of 307,939 MT, exceeding trade estimates, while soymeal sales were in line with expectations; however, sales for 2025/26 were tallied at 15,000 MT below estimates. The International Grains Council report indicated steady world soybean production but trimmed 2025/26 world stocks by 2 MMT to 81 MMT.

Analysis

Soybean futures demonstrated strength into the Thursday close, with contracts posting 3 to 5 cent gains, primarily supported by advances in soymeal futures which rose by $3.10 to $4.60 per ton. Conversely, soy oil futures experienced a decline, falling 37 to 72 points. A key driver for the positive sentiment in soybeans was the USDA's weekly Export Sales report, which indicated old crop soybean sales of 307,939 metric tons (MT) for the week ending May 15th. This figure surpassed trade estimates of 100,000 to 300,000 MT, representing a 9% increase from the previous week and a 10.2% rise compared to the same week in 2024, with Mexico being the lead buyer at 134,100 MT. However, new crop sales for 2025/26 were notably weak at 15,000 MT, significantly below the anticipated range of 90,000 to 400,000 MT. Soybean meal export sales totaled 382,652 MT, aligning with market expectations, while bean oil sales of 13,660 MT were within the anticipated range. Further tightening the supply outlook, the International Grains Council's latest report maintained global soybean production at 428 MMT but increased consumption estimates by 2 MMT, leading to a 2 MMT reduction in projected 2025/26 world stocks to 81 MMT. The cmdtyView Cash Bean price reflected the day's bullishness, rising 5 cents to $10.18 1/5.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should note the current bullish signals from robust old crop soybean export sales, which were 10.2% above last year for the reported week, and the International Grains Council's reduction of 2025/26 global stock forecasts to 81 MMT, while monitoring for continued strength in demand.
• Caution is warranted for longer-term positions given the significantly lower-than-expected new crop sales for 2025/26, specifically 15,000 MT against estimates of 90,000 to 400,000 MT, which could indicate potential headwinds for future demand.
• It is advisable to closely monitor the differential performance within the soybean complex, where supportive soymeal futures (up $3.10 to $4.60/ton) contrast with declining soy oil futures (down 37 to 72 points), as this divergence can impact crush margins and overall price trends.