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Market Impact: 0.4

Cattle Holding Steady as Beef Pushes Higher

NDAQ
Commodities & Raw MaterialsCommodity FuturesMarket Technicals & Flows
Cattle Holding Steady as Beef Pushes Higher

Live cattle futures are trading higher, with gains ranging from 15 to 55 cents, while feeder cattle futures also saw increases of 45 to 70 cents in the front months. Boxed beef prices are up, with the Choice/Select spread widening to $15.32, as Choice boxes increased $5.63 to $360.44 per hundred pounds. Monday's federally inspected cattle slaughter was estimated at 115,000 head, up from the previous week but slightly below last year's figures.

Analysis

Live cattle futures registered gains of 15 to 55 cents on Tuesday, with the June 25 contract, for instance, increasing $0.525 to $213.500, while feeder cattle futures also saw front-month advances of 45 to 70 cents. This futures market strength contrasts with a $1.97 decline in the CME Feeder Cattle Index to $298.86 on May 16 and reported cash prices at the OKC feeder cattle auction being $5-10 lower. The USDA's National Wholesale Boxed Beef report indicated a strengthening market, with Choice boxes up $5.63 to $360.44 and Select boxes rising $1.01 to $344.12, consequently widening the Choice/Select spread to $15.32. Federally inspected cattle slaughter on Monday was estimated at 115,000 head, representing a 16,000 head increase from the prior week but a 3,333 head decrease compared to the same Monday last year, implying a tighter year-over-year supply. Concurrently, U.S. pasture conditions improved, with 40% rated good/excellent, a 4% weekly increase, which could impact longer-term feeder cattle input costs.

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Market Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

Positive

Sentiment Score

0.30

Ticker Sentiment

NDAQ0.00

Key Decisions for Investors

  • Evaluate the current disconnect between strengthening cattle futures and softer cash feeder cattle auction prices for potential market imbalances or trading signals.
  • Assess positions in light of strong boxed beef demand, particularly for Choice cuts, as indicated by the widening Choice/Select spread, which may favor processors and producers of higher-quality cattle.
  • Monitor slaughter data closely, as persistently lower year-over-year rates coupled with robust beef demand could provide continued support for live cattle prices, while improving pasture conditions might temper feeder cattle price gains.