NVDA Calls See $17M In Bullish Flow As Markets Return To All-Time Highs

NVIDIA (NVDA) is experiencing a surge in bullish options activity, particularly in the deep-in-the-money $100 calls expiring at the end of May, with roughly $17 million in sweep orders indicating strong conviction in the company's market position. This bullish sentiment is further supported by the clearing of AI export restrictions and expectations of strong earnings driven by Blackwell GPU sales, contributing to a recent rally and positive analyst ratings, including a four-star rating from CFRA and a "Buy" rating from Argus.

Analysis

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is exhibiting significant bullish investor sentiment, underscored by substantial options market activity, including approximately $17 million in sweep orders for deep-in-the-money $100 calls expiring at the end of May, which constituted most of that contract's open-interest turnover. Daily trading volume for these specific May-expiration $100 calls surged dramatically from negligible figures like 342 contracts on May 14 to 41,054 contracts on May 19, representing 94% of existing open interest, with a slight increase in overall open interest indicating new bullish positions. While the contract price for these DITM calls remained relatively stable around $35.50-$35.70, implied volatility rose to 87.3%. The trade-side distribution for the May 30, 2025, $100 calls, while showing $29.6 million (27%) executed at the ask versus $24.6 million (23%) at the bid, was dominated by $48 million (44%) transacting below the bid, suggesting large negotiated prints or significant liquidity provision, creating a mixed but very active market. Further near- to medium-term optimism is reflected in $5.5 million of premium paid for $115 calls expiring June 20. This market activity is supported by favorable fundamental developments: the U.S. government's May 13 decision to rescind the "AI diffusion rule" expands NVIDIA's export capabilities for advanced AI chips, and strong pre-order indications for its Blackwell-generation GPUs suggest robust upcoming earnings, anticipated on May 28. Analyst sentiment reinforces this positive outlook, with consensus ratings such as CFRA's four-stars and LSEG's "Outperform" contributing to the stock's recent momentum.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report on May 28, as market expectations, fueled by Blackwell GPU demand and bullish options activity, are high.
• While overall options flow and fundamental news are positive, the significant volume traded below the bid in the May 2025 $100 calls suggests sophisticated positioning or hedging, warranting observation of institutional flows.
• The removal of AI chip export restrictions and strong analyst consensus provide a supportive backdrop, but the elevated implied volatility of 87.3% in near-term options indicates that current option prices reflect significant expected price movement.