These 2 Retail and Wholesale Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks Investment Research promotes its Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool as an effective method for identifying stocks likely to beat quarterly earnings estimates. The tool compares the most accurate, recent analyst estimate against the broader consensus, with a positive ESP combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or stronger historically leading to positive earnings surprises 70% of the time and generating average annual returns of 28% over a 10-year backtest. Best Buy (BBY) and Urban Outfitters (URBN), both Zacks Rank #3 stocks, are highlighted as current examples with positive ESPs of +4.74% and +6.24% respectively, indicating a strong probability of exceeding their upcoming Q4 2025 earnings expectations.

Analysis

The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool is presented as a method to identify stocks likely to beat quarterly earnings estimates. This tool compares the Most Accurate Estimate, based on recent analyst revisions, against the broader Zacks Consensus Estimate. Historically, stocks with a positive ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger have delivered positive bottom-line surprises 70% of the time, achieving an average annual return of 28% over a 10-year backtest.

Best Buy (BBY) and Urban Outfitters (URBN) are highlighted as current examples exhibiting these favorable conditions. Both companies hold a Zacks Rank #3 and are scheduled to report earnings on November 25, 2025. BBY shows a positive Earnings ESP of +4.74% (Most Accurate Estimate $1.37 vs. Consensus $1.31), while URBN has an ESP of +6.24% (Most Accurate Estimate $1.26 vs. Consensus $1.19). These positive figures suggest a strong probability that both retail and wholesale stocks will exceed analyst expectations for their upcoming Q4 2025 earnings.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider tactical positions in Best Buy (BBY) and Urban Outfitters (URBN) ahead of their November 25, 2025 earnings reports, given their positive Earnings ESPs and Zacks Rank #3, which historically indicate a high probability of beating estimates.
• Evaluate the efficacy of the Zacks Earnings ESP tool by monitoring the actual earnings performance of BBY and URBN, which could inform future investment strategies utilizing this methodology.
• Explore other retail and wholesale stocks with similar positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank criteria, leveraging the tool's reported historical success rate for potential short-term trading opportunities.