U-Haul growth index shows Ohio ranks among bottom states. See rankings

U-Haul's 2025 Growth Index shows Ohio plunged 29 places to No. 43 with one-way departures edging out arrivals (50.3% departures vs. 49.7% arrivals), marking its first net-loss year since 2017; inbound U-Haul customers to Ohio fell 1% year-over-year while departures rose 1%. The index—based on more than 2.5 million one-way transactions—highlights outsized gains in Sun Belt states (led by Texas and Florida) and continued population inflows to select Central Ohio suburbs, a pattern that may weigh on statewide housing demand and local tax bases while benefiting growing metros and moving/transportation services in the Sun Belt.

Analysis

Market structure: Net outflow from Ohio (50.3% of one-way U-Haul traffic leaving) reallocates demand to Sunbelt metros — winners are Sunbelt homebuilders, multifamily and home-improvement retail; losers are Ohio/Midwest housing markets, Ohio-heavy regional banks and localized REITs. Pricing power shifts toward Texas/Florida/AZ landlords and builders where vacancy tightening and permit activity can justify 5–15% premium on development returns over 12–24 months; U-Haul flows are an early-demand signal before transaction-level home-price moves.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a sharp national rate move (100bp higher) that would reverse mobility and curtail Sunbelt housing, or state-level incentives that accelerate corporate relocations; low-probability political/regulatory relocation incentives could materialize within 3–12 months. Immediate (days) read: sentiment and rental-search momentum; short-term (weeks–months): listings, permit and builder backlog data; long-term (quarters–years): capex and demographic entrenchment in job centers.

Trade implications: Favor long Sunbelt-exposed builders/retailers and logistics names (homebuilders XHB or DHI/LEN, Home Depot HD, JBHT) and hedge/short Ohio/regional exposures (KRE, HBAN) via small, tactical positions sized 1–3% each. Use directional call spreads for Sunbelt upside (3–9 month expiries) and put spreads on regional banks/Ohio RE players to limit premium; enter ahead of spring selling season (next 4–8 weeks).

Contrarian angles: The headline net-loss status for Ohio is marginal (50.3% vs 49.7%) and concentrated in particular metros — consensus shorts on broad Ohio assets may be overdone. Historic cycles (post-2010 Midwest recovery pockets) show pockets like Columbus suburbs can outperform; avoid blanket shorts and prefer granular metro- or issuer-level risk exposure to avoid being caught by localized growth.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long position in homebuilders focused on Sunbelt exposure: split 60% DHI (DR Horton) and 40% LEN (Lennar). Enter within 4–8 weeks; target 20–30% upside over 12 months; stop-loss 12%.
• Deploy a 1–2% tactical long in XHB (SPDR Homebuilders ETF) via a 3–6 month call spread sized to cost no more than 1% of portfolio to capture seasonal spring migration demand; target 8–15% return.
• Hedge regional/Midwest banking risk by initiating a 1–2% short position in KRE (SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF) or buy 3–6 month put spreads on HBAN (Huntington Bancshares) sized to limit max loss to 1% of portfolio; exit or reassess if KRE drops 15% or if Ohio inflows reverse to >50% arrivals.
• Rotate 2% into logistics/freight beneficiaries (JBHT) and Home Depot (HD) long positions to capture goods and renovation demand; use 6–12 month horizon and scale in ahead of Q2 2026 spring move season.
• Monitor within 30–90 days: (a) Ohio job announcements/layoffs, (b) state-level tax incentive bills, (c) monthly building permits in TX/FL/AZ — if permits fall >10% MoM across top metros, trim Sunbelt longs by 25%.