GOG backs Horses after the game was blocked from Steam

CD Projekt's GOG has announced it will host and open pre-orders for indie horror title Horses after Valve declined to distribute the game on Steam following an internal content review, a decision the developer says threatens its survival. Valve defended the move as consistent with its onboarding guidelines, while GOG framed the listing as support for developer choice—an episode that underscores platform gatekeeping risks for small studios and competitive dynamics in PC game distribution.

Analysis

Market structure: Immediate winners are GOG/CD Projekt (CDR.WA) and niche storefronts that can market controversial/arthouse titles; direct losers are indies dependent on Steam distribution and Valve’s brand/reputational capital. Steam still controls ~70–80% of PC distribution, so expect only single-digit share shifts absent regulatory change; pricing power of major platforms unchanged near-term.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include an EU regulatory intervention (Digital Markets/Competition probe) or high-profile litigation forcing Valve to change onboarding rules — a low-probability event but high-impact for platform economics over 6–36 months. Short-term (days–weeks) risk is PR-driven volatility; medium-term (months) risk is indie studio insolvencies; long-term (years) is structural redistribution of platform revenue shares.

Trade implications: Tactical plays favor platform owners/diversified distributors (Microsoft MSFT, Game Pass) and selective exposure to CD Projekt as GOG monetization optionality; avoid concentrated exposure to pure-play Steam-distribution-reliant mid/small caps. Options: use defined-risk spreads to express view — buy calls on CD Projekt or MSFT LEAPS and buy cheap protective puts on vulnerable small-caps; monitor GOG preorder volumes (>10k in 30 days) as a catalyst.

Contrarian angles: Consensus understates regulatory upside for competitors if Valve’s content gatekeeping draws EU/antitrust scrutiny — history (Epic v Apple) shows multi-year legal processes can materially re-shape channel economics. Conversely, the market may overrate PR wins for GOG; unless pre-orders/unique users exceed low five-figure milestones, expect negligible revenue re-rating.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 1–2% long position in CD Projekt (CDR.WA) via shares or a 6–12 month 25% OTM call spread; set tactical target +30% and stop-loss -15%. Monitor GOG pre-orders for Horses: >10,000 pre-orders within 30 days is a positive catalyst to add.
• Overweight Microsoft (MSFT) by 1–2% of portfolio as a 12–24 month structural play on platform diversification and Game Pass; consider Jan 2027 LEAPS for asymmetric upside, take profits at +20% or on two consecutive quarters of gaming revenue beat, stop -10%.
• Initiate a 0.5–1% short or buy a 3-month put spread on a Steam-dependent mid/small-cap publisher (example: Embracer Group, EMBRAC B:STO) if public filings show >50% PC revenue from Steam; target -30% move if platform access is materially restricted.
• Buy 3-month 10–15% OTM put spreads (0.5–1% portfolio risk) on broadly exposed publishers (EA, ticker EA; Activision, ATVI) as insurance against a regulatory shock in the next 90 days — close if no regulatory filings/complaints within 60–90 days.