Reminder: Invitation to Kongsberg Automotive's Q4 2025 Earnings Call

Kongsberg Automotive will release Q4 2025 results on 25 February 2026 at approximately 07:00 CET, with a public presentation at 09:00 CET in Oslo hosted by President & CEO Trond Fiskum and CFO Erik Magelssen. The earnings release, presentation and live webcast will be published on Newsweb and KA's website (recording available), and investor relations inquiries can be directed to CFO Erik Magelssen.

Analysis

Market structure: A clean Q4 print and constructive guidance would benefit Kongsberg Automotive (OSE: KA) and niche tier‑2 suppliers of EV control systems (Aptiv APTV, Visteon VC) by increasing pricing power on software/MEP content; losers would be legacy drivetrain suppliers and commodity‑exposed peers if auto OEM mix shifts faster to electronics. Expect a 10–25% intraday stock move around the Feb 25 release, a ~20–60bp move in small‑cap credit spreads on a beat/miss, and short‑term FX sensitivity to NOK/EUR swings that can shift reported margins by ~50–150bp.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include sudden OEM program cancellations, a warranty/recall episode or a raw‑material shock (steel/copper up >20%) that could wipe 200–400bp off gross margins; these are low probability but high impact. Immediate window (days): high IV and directional risk; short term (weeks): guidance re‑pricing and working‑capital revisions; long term (quarters+): EV content per vehicle and recurring aftermarket revenue drive high‑single to low‑double digit CAGR if KA secures program wins. Hidden dependencies: customer concentration (>20–30% revenue tied to a few OEMs), semiconductor supply normalization, and FX hedging policy — verify in the Q4 deck and MD&A.

Trade implications: For active portfolios, size risk: establish a tactical 1–2% long in KA ahead of results only if customer concentration <30% and backlog growth >5% q/q, with an 8% stop and 25% target within 4–6 weeks on a positive print. Options: buy a 1‑month call spread (ATM buy / +15% sell) sized to 0.5% portfolio risk to cap premium outlay; if IV >40% sell a small portion of upside premium on reversal. Pair trade: long KA vs short Continental AG (ETR:CON) 0.5x notional to isolate supplier‑specific execution risk; rotate into EV‑supplier basket (APTV, VC, BWA) while trimming legacy ICE plays.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underweight KA’s aftermarket and engineering services revenue which can stabilise margins in downturns — if KA reports recurring revenue >20% of sales, the market could materially re‑rate expectations. Conversely, markets often over‑punish guidance conservatism; if management gives cautious near‑term FX/cost commentary without fundamental deterioration, consider buying weakness under 15% post‑print with volatility‑backed hedges. Monitor backlog growth rate, gross margin delta, and customer concentration immediately (within 24–48 hours) post‑release as primary decision triggers.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical 1–2% long in Kongsberg Automotive (OSE: KA) 3–5 days before Feb 25 results only if publicly disclosed backlog growth >5% q/q and customer concentration <30%; use an 8% stop and target a 25% upside within 4–6 weeks on a beat.
• If preferring options, buy a 1‑month call spread on KA (buy ATM, sell +15%) sized to 0.5% portfolio risk; if implied vol >40% instead buy a 1‑month protective put (5–8% OTM) to hedge a 20–30% downside tail.
• Execute a pair trade: long KA (1%) vs short Continental AG (ETR:CON) 0.5x notional to isolate firm‑specific execution; trim the short if KA reports gross margin expansion >150bp or recurring revenue >20%.
• Rotate 2–4% of equity allocation into EV‑supplier names (Aptiv APTV, Visteon VC, BorgWarner BWA) and reduce legacy ICE supplier exposure by a similar amount; rebalance if input‑costs (steel/copper) rise >15% or OEM production forecasts cut by >5%.
• Prepare contingency: if KA guidance is negative and share falls >20% on volume, buy 3–6 month out‑of‑the‑money puts (15–25% OTM) sized to 0.5–1% portfolio risk to protect against a wider supplier sector sell‑off.