The corn market is rebounding, with futures and cash prices posting 4-6 cent gains, pushing the national average cash price to $4.52 1/4. This recovery is underpinned by a USDA-reported private export sale of 132,000 MT to South Korea for 2024/25. However, South American supply fundamentals present a mixed outlook: Brazil's second corn crop progress lags significantly at 1.4% complete versus 10.3% last year, and ANEC reduced its January export estimate by 180,000 MT to 3.35 MMT, down 47.46% year-over-year, while Argentina's crop forecast was trimmed by 1 MMT to 47 MMT.
The corn market is exhibiting renewed strength, with futures contracts posting gains of 4 to 6 cents, pushing the national average cash price to $4.52 1/4. This upward momentum is underpinned by fresh demand signals, specifically a USDA-reported private export sale of 132,000 metric tons to South Korea for the 2024/25 marketing year. More critically, supply-side constraints in South America are becoming more pronounced. In Brazil, the second corn crop harvest is progressing at a significantly delayed pace of 1.4%, a stark contrast to the 10.3% completion rate at this time last year. This lag is compounded by a downward revision in Brazil's January export estimate to 3.35 MMT, representing a 47.46% year-over-year decline. Similarly, Argentina's production outlook has been trimmed by 1 MMT to 47 MMT in a recent private forecast. The combination of confirmed U.S. export business and tightening supply expectations from both major South American competitors is creating a bullish fundamental backdrop for corn prices in the near term.
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