What time is House vote today on government shutdown 2026? Live update

The House is scheduled for a procedural vote at 11:15 a.m. ET and a final passage vote at 1:00 p.m. ET on Feb. 3, 2026, on a five-bill package to end the partial government shutdown by funding most of the federal government through September and providing two weeks of DHS funding. Passage is razor-thin — Speaker Mike Johnson can afford to lose only one Republican if all members are present — and failure would extend furloughs and materially disrupt agencies including Defense, DHS, State, Treasury, Health and Education, representing a near-term fiscal and operational risk for markets and government-dependent sectors.

Analysis

Market structure: A short government shutdown or two-week DHS extension raises idiosyncratic winners (large defense primes with backlog and cash, e.g., LMT, NOC, RTX) and losers (small-to-mid cap contractors, government-fee-dependent service providers, and consumer discretionary exposed to federal pay cycles). Expect downward pressure on small caps and discretionary spending near-term; sectors with >15-25% revenue tied to federal agencies are most at risk of sequential revenue misses over 1-4 weeks.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a protracted funding fight beyond two weeks or politically-conditional riders that force re-votes — a 1-3% hit to GDP growth in a quarter if furloughs extend and approvals stall. Immediate risk (hours–days): market volatility and spread tightening into Treasuries; short-term (weeks): earnings revisions for contractors and airports/transport; long-term (quarters): shifts in FY2026 procurement timing and regulatory uncertainty if policy riders persist.

Trade implications: Favor short-duration, defensive positioning: core long in Treasuries and cash, rotate 1–3% portfolio into staples (XLP) and utilities (XLU) vs short cyclical consumer (XLY) and small-cap (IWM). Use short-dated options to hedge directional risk — buy 2–4 week puts on IWM or SPY 2–3% OTM if House fails to pass funding or markets gap >1.5%.

Contrarian angle: The market’s risk-off knee-jerk may be overdone if the House passes the package today; yields could re-steepen rapidly and cyclicals snap back within 3–7 trading days. Opportunity: buy high-quality cyclicals (industrial primes) on 5–8% pullbacks post-resolution; avoid levering long-duration Treasuries beyond tactical 1–3 week hedges.

Key Decisions for Investors

• If the House vote fails or final passage delayed, establish a 2–3% portfolio allocation long TLT or 2–5 year Treasury ETF (IEI) within 24 hours; add if 10y yield falls >15 bps. Trim/reduce within 7 trading days if funding is passed and yields re-steepen by >20 bps.
• Initiate a 1.5% long XLP / 1.5% short XLY pair trade (equal notional) today; target 2–4% profit within 2–4 weeks or cut at a 3% adverse move. Rebalance after the funding vote outcome.
• Buy 2–4 week SPY puts 2–3% OTM sized at 0.5–1% portfolio risk if the House vote fails or SPX gaps down >1.5% intraday; sell if market stabilizes for 3 consecutive sessions post-vote.
• Establish a selective 1–2% long position in large-cap defense primes (LMT, NOC, RTX) funded by shorting small-cap government-exposed contractors or IWM (net neutral dollar exposure); hold 4–12 weeks and monitor backlog/contract award announcements.
• Do not initiate long-duration, leveraged Treasury positions ahead of the vote; instead, set conditional limit orders to buy TLT if funding remains unresolved after 48 hours to capture volatility with defined entry.