Is NuScale Power Stock a Buy Now?

NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR), a developer of small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) holding the sole U.S. NRC design certification, is approaching a critical juncture as it awaits a final decision by late 2025 from Romanian utility RoPower for its first potential commercial deployment: a 462 MW plant utilizing six SMRs. Despite its pre-revenue status, NuScale is already manufacturing long lead-time components, positioning itself to capitalize on a projected surge in global electricity demand, particularly from data centers and EVs, where its SMR technology is seen as a flexible, safer, and quicker-to-deploy solution. This potential first sale represents a significant validation for the company, offering a first-mover advantage in a rapidly expanding market, though conservative investors may prefer to await contract finalization.

Analysis

NuScale Power (SMR) is a pre-revenue company whose valuation is highly speculative and hinges on its ability to commercialize its small modular reactor (SMR) technology. The company holds a significant competitive advantage as the sole entity with a U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission design certification, which management believes places it a decade ahead of competitors. The primary catalyst and key risk for investors is the final investment decision from Romanian utility RoPower, expected by the end of 2025, for a 462-megawatt plant. A positive decision would validate NuScale's business model and secure its first commercial sale, representing a major inflection point. In anticipation, NuScale is already manufacturing long lead-time components for this project and for an additional six units, signaling confidence in its pipeline. The company is positioned to address substantial long-term growth in electricity demand, with U.S. consumption projected to rise 50% by 2050, driven by data centers and electric vehicles. However, with the stock up approximately 50% from its IPO price but down from recent highs, its current valuation reflects market uncertainty pending the materialization of a firm order book.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors with a high risk tolerance may consider initiating a speculative position in SMR ahead of the late-2025 RoPower decision to capture potential upside from a successful contract award and first-mover advantage.
• More conservative investors should treat the RoPower final investment decision as a critical de-risking event and may prefer to wait for its confirmation before committing capital, accepting a potentially higher entry point for a more validated business model.
• All investors should monitor corporate updates on the manufacturing of long lead-time components and any preliminary agreements, as these will serve as key leading indicators of progress toward the pivotal RoPower contract.