Invitation to webcasted telephone conference – Q4 2025

Billerud will publish its 2025 year-end report on Friday 30 January at ~07:00 CET, followed by a webcasted telephone presentation and Q&A by President & CEO Ivar Vatne and CFO Andrei Krés at 09:00 CET. The event will be held in English, presentation materials will be posted on Billerud’s website, and dial-in/registration details are provided for investors and analysts; no financial results are disclosed in this notice.

Analysis

Market structure: The invite itself is low-impact, but the Q4 release is a potential inflection for European packaging pricing power. A beat + upgraded FY guide would likely turbocharge premium cartonboard names and lift peers (Mondi MNDI.L, Smurfit Kappa) by 5–12% over 3 months as customers accept further price/pack-mix pass-through; a miss of >5% on organic volumes implies 200–400bp capacity underutilization and forces spot-price competition, hurting commodity corrugated players (e.g., WRK, IP) by ~8–15%.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a large mill outage (single-event EBITDA hit >€50–150m), sudden pulp-price reversal (NBSK down >10% in 30 days), or new EU packaging regulation forcing capex—each could move stock ±15–30% within quarters. Immediate volatility should cluster in the 48 hours around the call; short-term (1–3 months) risk is guidance revision and order backlog; long-term hinges on capex/green-transition spend and net-debt/EBITDA trajectory (>3.0x is a negative structural threshold).

Trade implications: Avoid directional stakes pre-release; prefer event structures. If IV <25% and implied move <4% on Billerud, buy 30–45 day straddles sized to 0.5–1% portfolio risk. Post-release, fade >5% single-day moves by selling 50% of move size (mean-reversion) or enter 3-month relative trades: long MNDI (2–3% weight) vs short IP (1–2%) if guidance signals durable pricing.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underappreciate margin recovery from mix and sustainability premium—if Billerud signals sustained mix shift to higher-margin virgin-fiber cartons, consider buying on dips where P/E gap to peers exceeds 10%. Conversely, if market overreacts to a one-quarter miss (>10% selloff), size 1–2% tactical longs with 3–6 month horizon; historical 2019 packaging compressions recovered 6–9 months after cyclical troughs.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Do not open outright long/short positions in Billerud before the report; instead, if Billerud option IV <25% and management signals an expected EPS move >4%, purchase a 30–45 day straddle sized to 0.5% portfolio risk to capture event volatility.
• If Billerud raises FY guide by >5% or reports organic volume growth >3% YoY, establish a 2–3% long position in Mondi plc (LSE:MNDI) and a 1% long in Smurfit Kappa (IR:SMFRY) as beneficiaries; target 6–12% upside in 3 months, trim on +8% moves.
• If Billerud cuts guidance (EBIT down >5% or volumes down >5% YoY), initiate a 1–2% short position in International Paper (NYSE:IP) or WestRock (NYSE:WRK) for 1–3 months; hedge with 3-month buy-writes (sell call spreads) if implied vol rises >20% post-release.
• If a post-release single-day move >5% occurs in any packaging name, implement a mean-reversion fade: enter opposite 50% of move size within 24–72 hours and set stop at 1.5x realized move; exit within 2–6 weeks unless fundamentals change.
• Reduce aggregate portfolio exposure to cyclical paper/pulp by 50% if Baltic/NBSK pulp futures fall >10% within 30 days or SEK strengthens >3% vs EUR/USD, reallocating to defensive packaging/labeling names (e.g., Avery Dennison AVY) with 6–12 month horizons.