Billionaire Bill Ackman Just Sold These 2 Stocks After They Disappointed in 2025. Here's Where He's Invested for 2026.

Pershing Square exited long-held positions in Chipotle and Nike after deteriorating operating performance: Chipotle's operating margin fell 800 basis points to 16.9% through the first nine months and same-store sales slid (Q3 comps +0.3% with management forecasting mid-single-digit Q4 declines), while Nike's fiscal 2025 sales dropped 10% and EBIT margin contracted from 12.7% to 8.2%, prompting a roughly 30% loss on Pershing's Nike stake. The fund has concentrated exposure to Alphabet and Brookfield (combined ~40% of the equity portfolio), with Alphabet benefiting from a lenient antitrust ruling, strong cloud momentum and AI (Gemini 3.0) despite an expanded upper-20s multiple, and Brookfield positioned to realize rising carried interest (management expects $6B over the next three years vs $4B in the prior decade) and ~25% distributable-earnings CAGR, trading around ~15x forward earnings.

Analysis

Market structure is bifurcating: GOOGL (search/AI + cloud) and BN/BAM (private markets, carried interest) are the direct beneficiaries of AI monetization and large fund raises, while CMG and NKE suffer from falling comps, input-cost pressure and tariff risk that compress margins by 300–800 bps. Competitive dynamics favor scale and platform owners (Alphabet) with pricing power in ad tech and cloud; consumer-facing brands face elastic demand and intensified promo competition, eroding historical margins. Supply/demand signals: ad and cloud demand remain robust (supporting tech multiples), but food/commodity and apparel input costs signal persistent margin headwinds for restaurants and footwear; IV in options for CMG/NKE will likely stay elevated into Q1 2026. Cross-asset: stronger AI/cloud narrative narrows credit spreads for large cap tech and asset managers, while tariffs and commodity inflation increase tail risk for consumer credit and commodity-linked FX (EM FX under pressure), and elevated equities vol will lift demand for protective options.

Tail risks include an adverse antitrust remedy for Alphabet, escalation of tariffs raising NKE structural costs, and a macro ad-spend pullback that lops 15–25% off revenue forecasts; fundraising stalls would delay BN carried-interest recognition. Time horizons matter: immediate (days) for earnings and tariff announcements, short-term (weeks–months) for Q4 comps/holiday sales, and long-term (2–36 months) for AI monetization and carried-interest realization. Hidden dependencies: Alphabet’s ad resilience depends on LLM integration not cannibalizing search clicks; Brookfield’s valuation hinges on fundraising velocity and asset exit multiples. Key catalysts: Google Cloud/Gemini product cadence (next 90 days), USTR tariff rulings (30–90 days), and BN/BAM fund closes (3–9 months).

Trade implications: establish conviction longs in GOOGL and BN while deploying asymmetric downside protection for CMG and NKE. Direct plays: initiate a 2–3% portfolio long in GOOGL via 9–12 month call spreads (target +30–40% in 12 months) and a 1.5–2% LEAP or buy on BN with 12–24 month horizon targeting +25–35%. Short plays: buy 3–9 month put spreads on NKE and CMG (size 0.8–1.5% each) or short stock with capped risk if IV is low. Pair trade: long GOOGL (2%) vs short NKE (1.5%) to express platform strength vs consumer discretionary weakness; add on GOOGL beats or NKE margin misses. Entry/exit: scale into longs on <=8% pullbacks, take profits on +20% moves, and use -12% hard stops or hedged collars.

Contrarian angles: consensus underestimates optionality in Brookfield’s carry run-rate (management projects $6B carry over 3 years) which could drive 25%+ distributable earnings growth if fund closes track guidance; this is a structural, under-owned call on private markets. Conversely, the market may be over-penalizing Nike/Chipotle short-term pain—both have precedent turnarounds (CMG post-E.coli took ~2–3 years) so short-duration options (3–9 months) are preferred to outright long-dated shorts. Unintended consequence: concentrated bets in GOOGL/BN create single-factor AI/private-market risk—buy hedges (portfolio puts or collars) if combined allocation >8% of portfolio. Historical parallels: post-crisis recoveries in platform ad revenue and private-market carry show asymmetric upside if execution/catalysts align.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long position in Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) via a 9–12 month bull call spread ~10–20% OTM (or equivalent synthetic) targeting +30–40% in 12 months; entry on up to 8% price pullback or initiate immediately with a -12% stop from cost.
• Initiate a 1.5–2% position in Brookfield (BN/BAM) using 12–24 month LEAP calls or stock with a 20% trailing stop; add incremental exposure on each announced fund close or when carried interest guidance is confirmed (monitor closings over next 3–9 months).
• Short NKE and CMG with a combined 2–3% portfolio exposure (≈1–1.5% each) via 3–9 month put spreads 10–20% OTM to limit tail risk; cover/trim if NKE EBIT margin sustainably >13% or CMG same-store sales turn positive for two consecutive quarters.
• Execute a pair trade: long GOOGL (2%) vs short NKE (1.5%) to capture platform/cloud outperformance vs consumer discretionary pressure; rebalance if spread widens beyond 20% relative performance or on material catalyst misses (earnings, tariff rulings).
• Reduce net consumer discretionary exposure by 10–20% and hedge concentrated tech/private-market exposure >8% of portfolio with 3–6 month 7–12% OTM index puts; monitor USTR tariff announcements within 30–60 days and Brookfield fund-close updates over 3–6 months and act (increase hedges or trim positions) if tariffs broaden or fund inflows stall.