3 Soaring Stocks to Hold for the Next 20 Years

With the S&P 500 near record highs, the article highlights three stocks positioned for long-term growth: Opendoor (OPEN), Joby Aviation (JOBY) and Robinhood (HOOD). Opendoor (trading at ~1.2x next-year sales) has new management and a 5.9% stake disclosed by Jane Street, is diversifying away from capital-intensive iBuying, and analysts forecast revenue to decline this year but grow at a 24% CAGR from 2025–2027 with EBITDA turning positive by 2027. Joby’s eVTOL S4 (150-mile range, 200 mph) has a $17.4bn backlog, strategic partners (Toyota, Delta, U.S. Air Force) and projected revenue rising from < $1m in 2024 to $200m in 2027 (implying ~64x 2027 sales). Robinhood serves 26.8m funded accounts and 3.9m Gold subscribers, is expanding into tokenized assets and acquisitions, and analysts forecast 2024–2027 revenue and adjusted EBITDA CAGRs of 27% and 38%, with valuation near 34x next year’s adj. EBITDA.

Analysis

Market structure: Winners are asset-light variants of housing platforms, early eVTOL OEMs with committed partners, and fintechs that scale non-transaction revenue; losers are capital-intensive iBuyers, legacy regional airlines and payments incumbents facing tokenized competition. The $17.4bn backlog implies initial supply scarcity for eVTOLs, giving pricing optionality but concentrated execution risk; housing liquidity normalization raises marginal funding costs for RE intermediaries. Across assets, a rerating toward growth compresses credit spreads and lifts equity beta; a hawkish rate surprise would disproportionately hit OPEN and other rate-sensitive models, while JOBY and HOOD trade on binary certification/regulatory outcomes that lift options vol.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include FAA certification failure or major safety incident for JOBY, SEC enforcement or hostile crypto regulation for HOOD, and a housing price re-acceleration or credit line pull for OPEN leading to forced asset sales. Immediate (0–3 months) risk is headline-driven volatility; short-term (3–12 months) is financing/dilution risk; long-term (2–5 years) is execution to projected EBITDA. Hidden dependencies: OPEN needs warehouse funding availability; JOBY relies on Tier-1 supply chain ramp; HOOD’s tokenization hinges on regulatory no-action or safe-harbor. Key catalysts: FAA Part 135/23 milestones (next 6–18 months), SEC statements on tokenized securities (30–90 days), and Opendoor asset-light rollouts and Jane Street stake disclosures.

Trade implications: Size conviction positions modestly: allocate 1–2% notional to high-convexity long JOBY via LEAPS (expiration 12–24+ months) to capture certification upside while limiting cash outlay; implement a paired hedge short DAL (0.5–1%) to capture reallocation risk in short-haul passenger revenue. For OPEN, consider 2–3% long via cash or buy-write given 1.2x sales, with a protective 25% stop or sell into a 50% rally; offset with a 1–2% short position in homebuilder ETF (XHB) for margin compression exposure. For HOOD, sell a 3–6 month covered call or buy a 9–12 month put as downside insurance until token-regulatory clarity; target taking profits if valuation compresses to <20x next-year adj. EBITDA or cut losers at -30%.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 1.5% long position in JOBY (equity or LEAPS with 12–24 month expiry) within the next 30 days to capture certification upside; set a mental stop at 40% drawdown and take partial profits on a 100% gain or upon FAA Part 135 approval.
• Initiate a 2% long position in OPEN via shares or buy-write and pair with a 1.5% short in XHB (homebuilder ETF) to hedge macro housing risk; exit the pair if OPEN reports positive EBITDA guidance or if 10-year Treasury yield rises >75bp from current levels.
• Implement a protective trade on HOOD: buy 9–12 month puts equal to 1% of portfolio notional while writing 3–6 month covered calls on existing exposure to monetize elevated implied volatility; reduce hedges if SEC issues favorable token guidance within 60–90 days.
• Reduce cyclical airline exposure by 2–4% (favoring DAL) and redeploy into selective tech/fintech (HOOD limited allocation) and high-convexity aerospace (JOBY) over the next 3 months; rebalance if any single position exceeds 5% of portfolio or on major regulatory reversals.