Initial jobless claims edged down to 245,000 for the week ending June 14th, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised 250,000, matching economist expectations. Despite the dip, both initial and continuing unemployment claims are trending higher, signaling a gradual softening in labor market conditions, with the four-week moving average of continuing claims reaching its highest level since November 2021. Oxford Economics suggests the economy is not weakening enough to prompt near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts despite persistent inflation risks.
U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ended June 14th decreased by 5,000 to 245,000, aligning with economists' expectations, following an upward revision of the prior week's figure to 250,000, which represented the highest level since the week ended October 5, 2024. Despite this modest weekly decline, a broader trend of rising initial and continuing unemployment claims suggests a gradual softening in U.S. labor market conditions, as highlighted by Michael Pearce, Deputy Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics. This assessment is further substantiated by the four-week moving average of initial claims, which rose by 4,750 to 245,500, its highest point since the week ended August 19, 2023. Similarly, while continuing claims for the week ended June 7th fell slightly by 6,000 to 1.945 million, their four-week moving average increased by 13,000 to 1,926,250, reaching its highest level since November 2021. Pearce indicated that despite these signs of a cooling labor market, persistent inflation risks make it unlikely the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts in the coming months.
AI-powered research, real-time alerts, and portfolio analytics for institutional investors.
Request a DemoOverall Sentiment
mildly negative
Sentiment Score
-0.30
Ticker Sentiment
