Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ members to increase oil production by 550,000 bpd in September

Goldman Sachs forecasts OPEC+ members will increase oil production by 550,000 bpd in September, completing the unwinding of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts, aiming to normalize spare capacity amid resilient global demand. This contributes to an expected 1.67 million bpd rise from eight key members between March and September. The bank maintains its Brent crude price forecast at $59/bbl for Q4 2025 and $56/bbl for 2026, citing offsetting factors like supply misses and reduced spare capacity, while noting upside risks from robust demand and downside risks for 2026 due to potential further cut unwinding and elevated U.S. recession probabilities.

Analysis

Goldman Sachs anticipates a further 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) production increase from eight key OPEC+ members in September, a move that would complete the reversal of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary supply cuts. This forecast follows a confirmed 548,000 bpd hike for August and is interpreted as a strategic shift by the cartel to normalize spare capacity and defend market share against U.S. shale, predicated on resilient global oil demand. The bank projects output from these members will rise by a cumulative 1.67 million bpd between March and September, reaching 33.2 million bpd, with Saudi Arabia accounting for over 60% of this increase. Despite the added supply, Goldman maintains its Brent price forecasts at $59 per barrel for Q4 2025 and $56 for 2026. This stable outlook is supported by offsetting factors, including anticipated supply shortfalls from members like Russia and the price support from reduced global spare capacity. However, the bank identifies balanced risks for 2025, while flagging significant downside price risk for 2026, citing the potential unwinding of an additional 1.65 million bpd of cuts and a 30% probability of a U.S. recession.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should view the announced OPEC+ supply increases not as a bearish signal for a price collapse, but as a calibrated response to strong demand, suggesting price stability in the medium term.
• Closely monitor Russian oil output for any signs of underproduction and Chinese economic data for confirmation of demand strength, as these are the key variables underpinning the current price forecasts.
• For long-term positions into 2026, it is prudent to factor in potential downside price risk stemming from the possible unwinding of further OPEC+ cuts and the elevated probability of a U.S. recession.