Analysts Estimate MetLife (MET) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

MetLife (MET) is projected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings and revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with consensus estimates at $2.19 EPS (-4% YoY) and $18.39 billion revenue (-1.5% YoY). The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 0.77% lower over the last 30 days. With a Zacks Earnings ESP of 0% and a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), MetLife is not considered a strong candidate for an earnings beat, having surpassed consensus EPS only once in the past four quarters.

Analysis

MetLife is positioned for a challenging quarterly report for the period ending June 2025, with consensus estimates forecasting a year-over-year decline in both earnings and revenue. Specifically, expectations are for an EPS of $2.19, representing a 4% decrease, and revenue of $18.39 billion, down 1.5%. This negative outlook is compounded by recent analyst sentiment, as the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 0.77% over the last 30 days. The company's prospects for an earnings beat appear weak, supported by a Zacks Earnings ESP of 0% and a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), a combination that historically indicates a low probability of a positive surprise. This is consistent with MetLife's recent performance, where it has surpassed consensus EPS estimates only once in the trailing four quarters and posted a 1.51% miss in its last report. The provided contrast with industry peer Lemonade, which exhibits a strong growth profile and a high likelihood of an earnings beat, further underscores the specific headwinds facing MetLife.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the consensus forecast for declining earnings and revenue, coupled with a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), investors should approach MetLife with significant caution ahead of its August 6th earnings release.
• The combination of a 0% Earnings ESP and a poor history of surpassing estimates suggests a low probability of a positive catalyst, warranting a review of long positions or consideration of hedging strategies to mitigate downside risk from a potential earnings miss.
• While quantitative signals are negative, focus on management's commentary during the earnings call for any unforeseen positive catalysts or changes in business conditions that could alter the current bearish outlook.
• The starkly positive outlook for industry peer Lemonade (LMND), which has a #2 (Buy) rank and positive ESP, may present a relative value or pairs trade opportunity against the weaker fundamental setup for MetLife.