A Trump Bull Market Correction May Be Coming. Here's What 150 Years of Data Says.

The CAPE ratio is at 36.48, well above the 24 level that historically preceded major market downturns in all six prior instances cited. The article argues this places the market near an all-time high valuation and raises the probability of a bear market before President Trump leaves office, though it does not predict an immediate crash. The piece is cautionary and could weigh on broad risk sentiment despite being based on a long-term valuation indicator rather than a new policy event.

Analysis

The signal is less “crash imminent” than “forward returns likely become structurally harder to earn.” At this valuation regime, the market can keep levitating on liquidity, passive flows, and a narrow leadership cohort, but breadth typically degrades first; that creates a fragile index-level tape even while headline indices look healthy. The practical implication is that the biggest risk is not an overnight gap-down, but a protracted period where dispersion widens, correlations rise on downside days, and multiple compression overwhelms incremental earnings beats.

For NVDA and INTC, the direct read is modestly negative on sentiment only, but the second-order effect matters more: when the market becomes valuation-sensitive, it punishes anything with long-duration cash flows or “story” multiples, while rewarding cash generation and capital return. That makes semis especially vulnerable to de-rating if AI spending is already crowded and positioning is consensus-long. INTC is the weaker relative name because it needs time and capex to prove operating leverage; in a risk-off tape, the market tends to discount execution lag more harshly than cycle recovery.

The contrarian point is that a high CAPE is a poor timing tool even when it is directionally right. These setups often persist for months or longer because recession has to arrive, policy has to tighten, or the earnings yield has to be displaced by a better alternative; absent those catalysts, the market can simply rotate rather than crash. So the trade is not to call the top outright, but to own convex downside protection, reduce exposure to the most crowded beta, and harvest relative value where fundamentals can outrun multiple compression.

If the article is right, the first pain trade is not broad shorts but leadership unwind: mega-cap growth and semis should underperform defensives and value on any macro disappointment. If it is wrong, the market should see continued narrow leadership and a rising tide that masks valuation risk; that is the tell to keep stops tight on bearish expressions.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Buy 3-6 month SPY put spreads financed by selling farther OTM puts; target a 2-3x payoff if multiple compression accelerates, with defined premium risk and no need to predict timing precisely.
• Short NVDA vs long XLP or XLU for a 2-4 month relative-value pair; thesis is that crowded AI leadership is most exposed to valuation de-rating, while defensives hold up if breadth deteriorates.
• Underweight INTC on any strength until the market rewards proof over plans; use call overwrites or collars if holding the equity, since upside is likely capped in a late-cycle de-risking.
• Add to cash-generative quality/value exposure such as BRK.B, KO, or MCD on market rallies; these names should outperform if the tape shifts from growth multiple expansion to balance-sheet durability.
• If you need beta, prefer equal-weight or low-volatility expressions over cap-weighted indices; the risk/reward is better because the downside from concentration unwind is lower than in SPY/QQQ.