#26-16 Information regarding the last day of trading in paid subscribed units and the first day of trading in warrants issued by Obducat AB

Obducat AB's unit issue has been registered with the Swedish Companies Registration Office; the last day of trading in paid subscribed units (Obducat BTU B, OBDU BTU B, ISIN SE0026876740) is 16 February 2026, with 150,888,277 units issued. Warrants series 16 (Obducat TO16 B, OBDU TO 16 B, ISIN SE0026876716) will begin trading on 20 February 2026 (112,136,914 warrants issued) and have a last trading day of 19 November 2026; both instruments are listed on NGM (Market-ID XNGM, Segment-ID EQST).

Analysis

Market structure: The introduction and listing of 112,136,914 TO16 B warrants vs 150,888,277 paid subscribed units implies potential incremental supply up to ~74% of the current unit base if exercised, creating a large overhang and increasing derivative market activity from Feb 20, 2026. Immediate winners are warrant speculators and market makers who capture spreads; losers are long equity holders facing dilution pressure and likely higher realized volatility over the Feb–Nov window.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are (1) exercise price set below market causing forced dilution and >30% downside, (2) low liquidity preventing efficient hedges, and (3) regulatory/operational errors around registration or exercise that could halt trading. Short-term (days–weeks) expect volatility spikes around Feb 16–20; medium-term (months) pricing will be driven by exercise economics and open interest; long-term (>6–9 months) outcome depends on whether warrants are exercised (cash inflow/use of proceeds) or expire worthless.

Trade implications: Direct actionable edge is to treat OBDU as a volatility and dilution play: prefer short equity exposure or long puts ahead of Feb 20 and size to 1.0–1.5% NAV given borrow costs; use 3-month put spreads to cap premium (buy Mar 2026 10–15% OTM puts, sell Mar 2026 25–30% OTM puts). If warrant pricing is rich in time decay at listing, consider buying a basket of TO16 B at issue (size 0.5–1% NAV) as binary upside to Nov 19 with stop at -50% and take-profit at +100%.

Contrarian angle: The market may underprice the constructive outcome where warrants are exercised and the company receives meaningful cash — if announced use-of-proceeds targets clear revenue or margin inflection, equity could re-rate; conversely, if exercise price >> market, warrants may expire worthless creating short-covering squeezes. Historical parallels: Swedish micro-cap warrant issuances have produced both >30% selloffs and >50% recoveries depending on transparency and capital deployment; monitor exercise price disclosure within 7 days as the decisive catalyst.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical short position in OBDU equity sized 1.0–1.5% of NAV (or equivalent CFDs/borrow) ahead of Feb 20, 2026; set stop-loss at +10% above entry and take-profit at -15–25% within 3 months, reflecting ~74% potential dilution risk.
• Buy Mar 2026 put spreads on OBDU to hedge equity short: buy 10–15% OTM puts and sell 25–30% OTM puts (ratio 1:1) sized to cover 50% of the short notional; cost-limited hedge if outright puts are expensive.
• At listing on Feb 20, allocate 0.5–1.0% NAV to long TO16 B warrants only if market price implies >20% chance of exercise (warrant price > theoretical intrinsic+time value threshold); exit on +100% gain or -50% loss, or by Nov 1, 2026.
• If the company discloses an exercise price within the next 7 days that is below current market price, immediately increase short coverage by 50% and trim any long warrants — such a disclosure raises immediate dilution risk and should be treated as a sell catalyst.