Second ispace lunar lander presumed lost

Ispace's Resilience lunar lander likely crashed during its attempted moon landing on June 5th after telemetry indicated an unexpectedly high speed upon reaching the surface. The company attributed the failure to a laser rangefinder malfunction that prevented sufficient deceleration, resulting in a presumed "hard landing"; executives stated the issue differed from a previous failed landing in April 2023. Despite the setback, ispace remains committed to future lunar missions, including Missions 3 and 4 slated for 2027, emphasizing the technical difficulty of lunar landings and the competitive advantage gained from demonstrating success.

Analysis

Japanese company ispace's Resilience mission, its second attempt to land on the moon, likely ended in a crash on June 5. Telemetry indicated the lander approached the lunar surface at 187 kilometers per hour, far exceeding safe landing parameters, approximately one minute and 45 seconds ahead of schedule, after which contact was lost. Ispace attributes this failure to the laser rangefinder, which experienced delays in providing valid measurements, preventing the lander from decelerating adequately; this cause is reportedly different from the software issue that led to the crash of its first lander in April 2023. The company has prioritized a swift analysis of telemetry data to determine the precise root cause, noting that the laser rangefinder on Resilience was a different model than on Mission 1. The presumed loss of the lander also means the loss of its payloads, including the Tenacious rover intended for a NASA regolith ownership transfer contract and experiments from Japanese companies. Despite this significant setback, ispace executives reaffirmed their commitment to future missions, including Mission 3 featuring the Apex 1.0 lander for a NASA CLPS mission in 2027, and Mission 4 in the same year with a new Series 3 lander, supported by an $80 million Japanese government award. Management underscored the technical difficulty of lunar landings while also highlighting the potential 'competitive edge' achievable through successful demonstration, given the demand for lunar payload delivery.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should acknowledge the heightened execution risk and potential for further capital requirements following ispace's second consecutive lunar landing failure, reflecting the challenging nature of commercial lunar missions.
• Close scrutiny of ispace's forthcoming root cause analysis for the Resilience failure is warranted, as its findings and subsequent corrective actions will be critical indicators for the viability of the distinct lander designs planned for Missions 3 and 4.
• The success of future missions, particularly Mission 3 and 4 in 2027, will be pivotal for ispace to restore confidence, validate its technology against competitors, and capitalize on the stated customer demand for lunar payload services.