The next few months are typically a strong time for Apple

JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee anticipates Apple (AAPL) shares will outperform the S&P 500 between June and mid-September, driven by investor anticipation for new iPhone releases, a trend observed in six of the last seven years with an average 18% rally for Apple versus the S&P 500's less than 6% gain. Chatterjee suggests low expectations for the upcoming Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) and the iPhone 17 cycle could further fuel gains, particularly if Apple addresses AI capabilities, tariff impacts, and iPhone pricing concerns, though the lack of a U.S.-China trade deal remains a potential headwind.

Analysis

Apple (AAPL) shares have significantly underperformed in 2025, declining over 19% year-to-date while the S&P 500 has gained over 1%, largely attributed to investor concerns over the potential impact of President Donald Trump's tariff plan on the company's international manufacturing and profitability. However, JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee highlights a historical precedent for Apple outperforming the S&P 500 between June and mid-September, a period in which Apple shares have rallied an average of 18% over the past seven years, compared to less than 6% for the S&P 500, driven by anticipation surrounding new iPhone releases. Chatterjee suggests that currently low investor expectations for the upcoming Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) and the iPhone 17 cycle could create a favorable setup for share price appreciation, particularly if Apple showcases compelling AI capabilities or provides reassuring updates. Potential positive catalysts also include signs that tariff impacts will be less severe than anticipated or that consumer price elasticity concerns for the new iPhone are unwarranted. While the consensus among Wall Street analysts, as per LSEG, is bullish, projecting an approximate 14% upside for Apple over the next year, the lack of a U.S.-China trade deal remains a significant overhang that could introduce volatility.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors could consider the historical seasonal strength of Apple shares from June to mid-September, potentially driven by new product cycle anticipation, especially given current low investor expectations for WWDC and the iPhone 17.
• Monitor Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference closely for announcements related to artificial intelligence capabilities and any forward guidance on the iPhone 17 cycle, as positive surprises could act as significant share price catalysts.
• Factor in the ongoing risk from the U.S.-China trade dispute and tariff implications, which could offset potential gains, despite the prevailing bullish analyst sentiment indicating roughly 14% upside.