Why Is Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Up 8.5% Since Last Earnings Report?

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) shares have risen 8.5% since its last earnings report, outperforming the S&P 500; however, consensus estimates have decreased by 14.64% over the past month. The stock holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting an expected in-line return in the coming months, while peer Phillips 66 (PSX) has gained 6.6% over the same period but faces a projected 21.7% earnings decrease for the current quarter.

Analysis

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has demonstrated notable stock performance, with shares appreciating approximately 8.5% since its last earnings report, thereby outperforming the S&P 500. Despite this positive share price movement, analyst sentiment appears to be tempering, as fresh estimates have flatlined over the past month, and the consensus estimate has undergone a significant negative revision of -14.64%. The company's current Zacks VGM Scores present a mixed picture: a subpar Growth Score of D contrasts with a strong Momentum Score of A and a respectable Value Score of B, culminating in an overall VGM Score of C. This profile, combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggests an expectation of in-line returns from the stock in the near term. In comparison, industry peer Phillips 66 (PSX) also gained 6.6% over the past month and holds a similar Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), but reported a substantial year-over-year revenue decline of 12.9% to $31.73 billion and an EPS of -$0.90 for the quarter ended March 2025, a stark drop from $1.90 a year ago. Furthermore, Phillips 66 faces a projected earnings decrease of 21.7% for the current quarter, with its Zacks Consensus Estimate also revised downwards by 0.3% recently, and it carries a poor VGM Score of F.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should acknowledge the divergence between Marathon Petroleum's recent share price appreciation and the significant downward revision in its consensus earnings estimate, which suggests potential headwinds despite current market momentum.
• Given the Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and the -14.64% shift in consensus estimates for MPC, a cautious stance is warranted; monitor upcoming earnings releases and further analyst estimate revisions closely before altering positions.
• While MPC's strong Momentum Score (A) might support short-term price resilience, the subpar Growth Score (D) and revised estimates indicate that long-term investors should carefully evaluate the sustainability of the recent rally.