Top University of Minnesota grads are ‘at least as good, maybe better’ than the best and brightest from Harvard, former Goldman Sachs CEO says

Former Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein argued that top performers from large public universities can be as good as or better than peers from elite colleges, citing examples like Gary Cohn (American University) and David Solomon (Hamilton College), and noting that prep-school pipelines bias Ivy enrollment. The article flags structural shifts: AI is shrinking demand for entry-level professional roles and enabling AI-generated résumés, Harvard grade inflation has driven A's to roughly 60% (up from 40% a decade ago), and a 2025 Veris Insights survey of 150+ firms found 26% now recruit from a narrower set of schools (versus 17% in 2022). For investors, these trends signal evolving talent sourcing dynamics and potential long-term effects on hiring costs and workforce composition, but they are unlikely to be immediately market-moving.

Analysis

Market structure: Recruiters leaning on school pedigree and the rising use of AI to homogenize résumés creates winners (platforms that verify credentials and sell campus access: LinkedIn/MSFT, staffing firms like RHI/MAN, online skills providers UDMY/COUR) and losers (legacy college-dependent services that sell exam/homework help such as CHGG and student-housing REITs exposed to declining full-fee enrollments). Pricing power will shift to firms that control signal/verification (background checks, on-campus pipelines), not schools; expect 5-15% revenue tailwinds for verified-hire tools over 12–24 months if adoption accelerates.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include regulatory intervention on AI hiring algorithms or anti-discrimination suits within 6–18 months that could force de‑risking of automated screening, and macro shocks that cut hiring budgets causing a rapid demand swing in 0–12 months. Hidden dependencies: campus access, immigration (H‑1B) rules, and corporate internship budgets are levers; a single large employer (FAANG/GS-scale) changing campus sourcing could re‑allocate talent flows quickly. Key catalysts: fall 2025 recruiting cycle, LinkedIn product releases, and quarterly earnings from MSFT/RHI in next 2–3 quarters.

Trade implications: Direct plays favor MSFT (LinkedIn + verification tools) and online skills platforms (UDMY/COUR) for 6–18 month holds; staffing firms (RHI/MAN) are cyclical but should see higher demand for contingent hiring in next 3–12 months. Option tactics: use 6–9 month call spreads on MSFT to finance long UDMY/COUR exposure; buy 3–6 month puts on CHGG as downside hedge to academic‑integrity displacement. Sector rotation: trim pure-play student-housing REITs and increase exposure to staffing and ed‑tech by 2–4% portfolio weight over two quarters.

Contrarian angles: Consensus overweights pedigree as a recruiting signal; that view underestimates the value of scale‑scarce top performers from large public schools and trade certification providers—this creates mispricings in mid‑cap ed‑tech and staffing stocks. Historical parallels: 1990s vocational upcycle post‑tech shifts saw multi‑year outperformance of trade suppliers and staffing; if recruiting narrows to a small set of schools, expect regional wage inflation and concentration risk that could buoy local labor markets and RE prices unexpectedly. Watch Veris Insights surveys and LinkedIn campus engagement metrics as leading indicators over the next 3–6 months.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in MSFT within 4 weeks to capture LinkedIn hiring-product monetization and AI verification demand; hedge cost with a 6–9 month call spread (buy ATM, sell +7–12% strike) targeting 10–20% upside in 6–12 months.
• Allocate 1.5–2% to online skills providers (split UDMY and COUR) for 12–18 month holds to play reskilling demand; add if quarterly enrolment/gross billings grow >5% QoQ.
• Deploy 1–2% across staffing names (RHI and MAN, 0.5–1% each) as a tactical long for next 3–9 months; add on any pullback >10% or if RHI/MAN beat revenue guidance tied to campus/contingent hiring.
• Initiate a 0.5–1% short (or buy 3–6 month puts) on CHGG due to AI substitution risk and academic‑integrity headwinds; close if CHGG revenue from subscriptions stabilizes >flat YoY for two consecutive quarters.
• Pair trade: Long RHI (1%) / Short ACC (student housing REIT ACC) (1%) to express shift from full-fee college attendance to vocational alternatives; reduce short if fall 2025 enrollment decline is <2% YoY or Veris survey shows narrowing of recruiter school set.