Soybeans Post Gains, as NASS Confirms Record October Crush

Soybean futures were marginally firmer (Jan +4¢ to $10.91¼; nearby cash $10.21¾, +4¼¢) while soybean meal slipped and soybean oil gained 7–11 points as private USDA sales data showed 136,000 MT to China, 119,000 MT to unknown destinations and a separate 212,000 MT reported in the period, plus 120,000 MT of meal to Poland. USDA NASS fats & oils data showed robust processing—September crush of 204.93M bu (+9.9% YoY) and an all‑time monthly record October crush of 237M bu (+9.9% YoY)—while soybean oil stocks rose to 1.781 billion lbs (+11.9% YoY), supporting continued export/processing demand but adding supply to the oil complex. Managed money increased net long by 15,760 contracts to 194,443 as of Nov. 10, and traders await USDA Export Sales on Thursday (consensus 0.6–1.4 MMT soybeans; 50–450k MT meal; 5–25k MT oil), a report that could drive near‑term volatility given the current bullish positioning and strong crush fundamentals.

Analysis

Soybean futures were marginally firmer, rising 1–4 cents across contracts with the Jan‑26 contract settling at $10.91¼ (+4¢), Mar‑26 at $11.01 (+2.75¢) and May‑26 at $11.10½ (+1.75¢); nearby cash was $10.21¾. Soymeal futures were steady to $3.10 lower while soybean oil gained 7–11 points, underscoring product-specific divergence within the oilseed complex.

USDA private export sales showed 136,000 MT sold to China, 119,000 MT to unknown destinations and an additional 212,000 MT reported in the period, plus 120,000 MT of soybean meal to Poland; traders are awaiting the official weekly Export Sales for the week ending Nov. 13 with expectations of 0.6–1.4 MMT soybeans, 50–450k MT meal and 5–25k MT oil. Managed-money added 15,760 contracts to the net long through Nov. 10, taking the net long to 194,443 contracts, a position that raises the potential for amplified price moves around data releases.

USDA NASS Fats & Oils data show robust processing activity — September crush 204.93M bu (+9.89% YoY) and an all‑time monthly October crush of 237M bu (+9.86% YoY) — while soybean oil stocks rose to 1.781 billion lbs (+11.89% YoY). The combination of record crush and rising oil inventories suggests sustained meal supply/export demand but increased oil-side supply risk, implying the market is fundamentally supported yet vulnerable to inventory-driven softness and near-term volatility tied to export data.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor Thursday's USDA Export Sales closely and avoid adding large directional soybean positions into the report given the sizeable managed‑money net long that could amplify moves
• Consider overweight or selective exposure to processors and soybean‑meal focused positions where record crush and recent meal sales to China/Poland support fundamentals, but trim positions if export receipts undershoot expectations
• Hedge soybean oil exposure (options or crush/spread strategies) because rising oil stocks (+11.9% YoY) increase the risk of capped upside in oil even as crush remains strong