Invitation – SEB’s Annual Accounts 2025

SEB will release its Q4 2025 results on Thursday 29 January at ~06:15 CET with presentations and a Fact Book published on sebgroup.com/ir; a telephone conference with CEO Johan Torgeby and CFO Christoffer Malmer will follow at 07:45 CET (English) including a Q&A. At 30 September 2025 the Group reported total assets of SEK 4,033bn and assets under management of SEK 2,820bn, with around 19,000 employees and operations in over 20 countries. Contact details for investor and media relations are provided and media interviews can be arranged after the conference.

Analysis

Market structure: The Q4/annual SEB event is a concentrated liquidity/ information shock for Nordic banking exposure — immediate winners are long-equity and long-covered‑bond positions if SEB confirms stable loan loss provisions and maintains dividend/CET1 guidance; losers are short sellers and holders of SEB junior debt if surprises are positive. Expect a 1–3% immediate equity move on a beat/miss, 5–25bp reprice in 3–7y senior and covered spreads, and 0.2–0.6% SEK volatility versus EUR/FX in the 48h around the print.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a >50bp surprise increase in credit impairments, regulatory fines or a CET1 shock >100bp which would force capital raises and widen CDS materially (100–300bp). Near-term (days) risk is event IV and liquidity; short-term (weeks) risk is analyst revisions and secondary flow; long-term (quarters) risk centers on Swedish commercial real‑estate losses and deposit flight dynamics. Hidden dependencies: Baltic corporate loan mix, treasury LCR/funding maturity wall and sensitivity to Riksbank rate moves; catalysts include upcoming Swedish CPI and Riksbank decisions within 30 days.

Trade implications: Tactical trades: buy 1–2% long SEB equity ahead of the call if expecting maintained capital return (enter 48–72h pre-event), target +6% in 4–6 weeks, stop −4%. Vol trade: purchase 2-week ATM straddles (cap premium ≤1.2% of spot) to capture IV expansion; alternatively sell premium post‑print if IV collapses. Relative value: pair long Nordea (NDA / large-cap Nordic bank) vs short SEB if capital commentary is weak; expect relative move 3–6% in 1–3 months.

Contrarian angles: Consensus will over‑weight capital stability; market may underprice upside from fee-income/wealth-AUM resilience — a modest beat could deliver asymmetric upside (3–7%). Conversely, a small miss could be over‑punished; historical SEB prints show mean-reversion within 6–8 weeks. Unintended consequence: aggressive share buybacks promised then delayed can trigger 10–15% downside sentiment even absent fundamentals change.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 1.5% long position in SEB ordinary shares (SEB A/B) entering 48–72 hours before the Q4/Annual call; target +6% exit within 4–6 weeks post-print, implement hard stop-loss at −4% to limit event risk.
• Buy 2-week ATM straddles on SEB with premium capped at 1.2% of spot (enter 2 trading days before release) to capture expected IV spike; roll or close within 3 trading days after print depending on realized move.
• If SEB announces credit impairments >0.5% of gross loans or CET1 guidance cut >100bp, initiate a 2% pair trade: short SEB and long Nordea (size neutral by market cap) targeting 3–6% relative gain over 1–3 months.
• Purchase 3–5y protection in SEB senior CDS (size 0.5–1% notional) only if management signals funding stress or guidance for capital measures; sell protection if CET1 confirmed above prior guidance and issuance is not required.
• Monitor three specific triggers within 30 days post-report: (1) announced dividend/share buyback quantum (threshold: <50% prior payout = negative), (2) CET1 change >100bp, (3) CRE loan NPL formation >0.5% — act (scale in/out) per rules above when thresholds hit.