ASM International cuts H2 2025 revenue outlook

ASM International (ASMI.AS) has significantly cut its revenue guidance for the second half of 2025, now projecting a 5-10% decline compared to the first half at constant currency rates, a reduction from its prior flat outlook. This downward revision stems from lower-than-expected demand in leading-edge logic/foundry and power/wafer/analog markets, leading analysts to suggest potential weakness from major customers like Intel and Samsung, despite TSMC's ongoing advanced manufacturing rollout.

Analysis

ASM International (ASMI.AS) has issued a significant downward revision to its revenue forecast for the second half of 2025, now projecting a 5% to 10% decline relative to the first half, a notable shift from its previous guidance of flat revenue. This negative revision is attributed to softening demand in the leading-edge logic/foundry sector and weakness in power/wafer/analog markets, with the company also flagging an expected revenue drop in the fourth quarter of the current year. The guidance cut is particularly striking as it contrasts with the ongoing advanced manufacturing rollout by a key customer, TSMC, which utilizes ASM's tools. An analyst from Degroof Petercam speculates this discrepancy suggests the demand weakness is likely concentrated with ASM's other major customers, namely Intel (INTC) and Samsung, pointing to a fractured demand landscape among top-tier chipmakers rather than a uniform, industry-wide downturn. This situation highlights potential customer concentration risk and divergent capital expenditure strategies within the semiconductor industry.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors in ASM International should revise their financial models to incorporate the lower H2 2025 revenue guidance and the expected Q4 revenue drop, increasing scrutiny on near-term demand stabilization.
• The diverging demand signals between TSMC and other major clients like Intel and Samsung warrant a closer look at the customer exposure of other semiconductor equipment manufacturers, as this may indicate concentrated pockets of weakness across the supply chain.
• Monitor upcoming capital expenditure guidance from Intel (INTC) and Samsung, as their spending plans are now a critical variable in assessing the floor for ASM's revised and lowered outlook.