Corn Mixed at Midday

Corn futures are showing mixed performance, with nearby July contracts rising slightly while new crop months are down 1 to 2 cents. Weekly export sales reached 1.19 MMT, falling within expectations but down 29% from the previous week, although still 30.7% higher than the same period last year. The International Grains Council projects a 3 MMT increase in world corn production for the 2025/26 marketing year, leading to a corresponding rise in stocks to 284 MMT.

Analysis

Corn markets displayed mixed behavior on Thursday, with nearby July futures advancing 1 ¼ cents to $4.62 1/4, while new crop contracts, such as December 2025 corn, declined by 1 to 2 cents, settling at $4.53 1/2. The front month CmdtyView national average cash corn price also firmed, rising 1 3/4 cents to $4.35 1/2. Export sales for the week ending May 15 registered 1.19 million metric tons (MMT), falling within the anticipated range of 0.7 to 1.6 MMT. Although this represented a 29% decrease from the previous week, it marked a significant 30.7% increase compared to the same week last year, with Japan (370,900 MT) and Mexico (219,300 MT) as key buyers. New crop sales totaled 218,371 MT, also within expectations, led by Colombia. Looking ahead, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts a 3 MMT rise in world corn production for the 2025/26 marketing year, with global stocks projected to increase commensurately to 284 MMT. This combination of steady current export demand, particularly year-over-year, contrasts with softer new crop pricing and projections for increased future global supply, contributing to a neutral market sentiment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor the evolving spread between old crop and new crop corn futures, as the current divergence reflects different supply-demand perceptions for immediate versus future delivery.
• The International Grains Council's projection of increased global corn production and stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year suggests potential headwinds for new crop prices, warranting caution for long-term bullish positions.
• Closely track ongoing weekly export sales figures; sustained strength, particularly compared to last year, will be crucial to support prices against the backdrop of anticipated larger global supplies.
• For instruments like the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN), the mixed signals—current export performance versus future supply outlook—necessitate a balanced view, potentially adjusting exposure based on risk appetite and the evolving fundamental picture.